SerpApi.Org
Updated at 9:50 a.m. on Wednesday, July 22, 2026.
Tropical Storm Bertha will soon make landfall on the east-facing coast of southeastern Louisiana. Gusty winds are impacting the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Louisiana, but so much dry air is pushing in from the north that the rain associated with the circulation is relatively light.
Winds on the backside of the circulation are pushing Gulf water toward the coast. Tides have been running 2 to 3 feet above normal, resulting in some limited coastal flooding around high tide.
Once Bertha’s broad center makes landfall, the circulation is likely to get sufficiently disrupted that the tropical system essentially dissipates.
But the cluster of thunderstorms south of Louisiana over the very warm Gulf water is quite intense. It's not out of the question that a new center forms from that compact system, and the new circulation and the remnants of Bertha continue west toward Texas.
There might be a time that there, technically speaking, is no surface circulation to follow, but it's likely this will all be called Bertha.
In any case, the consensus of the computer forecast models that pick up on the redeveloped center is that Bertha, or whatever becomes of it, will be at most a low-end tropical storm when it reaches Texas late tomorrow. That's also the forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
The trend of the computer models has been to take Bertha or the combo system farther south than the cone for the "old" center has indicated.
Exactly what shape the system will be in tomorrow and Friday is an open question. Coastal interests in Texas between Corpus Christi and Galveston should stay aware. Winds gusting to tropical storm strength are increasingly likely. The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch to cover that possibility.
The HAFS-A computer model, a special hurricane-focused model, shows an area of winds gusting over 50 mph impacting the coast between Port Lavaca and Galveston. It also shows an elongated circulation, so the system is not very well organized.
The environment will continue to be somewhat hostile to development tomorrow, and the redeveloped system won't have much time to pull itself together, so it's unlikely that a strong storm would impact Texas based on what we know now. But systems can flare up quickly due to the curvature of the Texas coast and the very warm Gulf water, so stay aware of the latest alerts in the potentially affected areas.
If this comes together as now seems possible, essentially a new storm will be organizing just off the Texas coast tomorrow and making landfall. Don't be surprised.
Original article source: Bryan Norcross: Weakening Bertha close to landfall in Louisiana but its story likely to continue on to Texas
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