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Amish Shah’s victory in Arizona‘s Democratic primary has given the party its nominee in one of the most closely watched House races in America, but it has also delivered another rebuke to its leaders in Washington.
The emergency physician and former state lawmaker defeated Marlene Galán-Woods, the candidate backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), and will now face Republican Jay Feely, the former NFL kicker and broadcaster endorsed by President Donald Trump.
Voters in Scottsdale, northeast Phoenix, Paradise Valley and surrounding communities will choose a new representative, while national party strategists will view the race as a test of competing campaign approaches.
The contest for Arizona’s 1st Congressional District is expected to be one of several races that could determine which party controls the House after November’s elections.
Newsweek reached out to the DCCC and Galán-Woods via email and Feely and Shah via their websites’ contact forms for further comment on Thursday morning.
Key Points
- Shah won Arizona’s Democratic primary with 39.5 percent of the vote, defeating DCCC-backed Galán-Woods, who received 34.3 percent, with 99 percent of the ballots counted.
- Republican Feely won his party’s nomination with 49.8 percent, beating Joseph Chaplik (35.7 percent) and John Trobough (14.5 percent).\, with 98.9 percent of the ballots counted.
- Shah’s victory represents a setback for the DCCC, which intervened in the race on behalf of Galán-Woods.
- Arizona’s 1st Congressional District is an open seat after Republican David Schweikert ran unsuccessfully for governor.
- Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Shah roughly a 75 percent chance of victory, compared with 31 percent for Feely.
- Polymarket traders give Democrats a 66 percent chance of winning the seat versus 26 percent for Republicans.
- Available public polling has shown a highly competitive race, with one survey finding Feely tied with a generic Democrat and another showing a slight Democratic advantage.
- The district voted narrowly for Trump in 2024 but has a recent history of ticket-splitting.
What Polls Show About the General Election
Despite the excitement surrounding Shah’s primary victory, there has been relatively little public head-to-head polling featuring the final matchup between Shah and Feely.
The most recent publicly available survey comes from GrayHouse, which polled 500 likely voters in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District between November 15 and November 17, 2025. The survey reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
GrayHouse Poll Finds Tie With Generic Democrat
When respondents were asked to choose between Feely and a generic Democratic candidate, the race was tied:
- Jay Feely: 42 percent
- Generic Democrat: 42 percent
- Undecided: 16 percent
That finding suggested Republicans would remain highly competitive even in what many analysts expected to be one of Democrats’ strongest pickup opportunities.
Feely Improved After Voters Heard Biographical Information
One of the more notable findings involved candidate biographies.
After respondents were given background information about each candidate, Feely’s support increased substantially. He moved from 42 percent support to 46 percent, while the generic Democrat dropped to 39 percent.
The resulting seven-point Republican advantage suggested Feely’s football career, broadcasting experience and outsider profile could be political assets in a district with a large independent vote.
The same survey found:
- Feely favorable: 15 percent
- Feely unfavorable: 12 percent
- Never heard of him: 43 percent
That produced a net positive favorability rating, making him the only tested candidate with positive favorability in the poll.
What Prediction Markets Are Saying
While polling remains limited, prediction markets have generated substantial interest among political observers.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts based on expected election outcomes. Supporters argue that they aggregate information from thousands of participants and react quickly to new developments. Critics note that trading volumes can be relatively small, markets can be influenced by partisan sentiment, and prices do not guarantee election results.
Kalshi Gives Shah Clear Edge
Kalshi’s market on the Arizona 1st Congressional District currently favors Shah.
At the time of writing:
- Amish Shah: 75 percent implied probability
- Jay Feely: 31 percent implied probability
The market has generated more than $57,000 in trading volume.
Because prediction markets allow simultaneous trading on opposing outcomes, percentages do not always total exactly 100 percent.
Even so, Kalshi traders appear to believe Democrats enter the general election as favorites.
Polymarket Also Leans Democratic
Polymarket’s market asks which party will ultimately win Arizona’s 1st District.
Current trading implies:
- Democratic Party: 66 percent
- Republican Party: 26 percent
Traders point to the district’s recent trend toward political competitiveness, the open-seat nature of the race and broader midterm dynamics as reasons for Democratic optimism.
However, the market’s own analysis notes that candidate quality and turnout could still shift the balance substantially.
Former Jets Colleagues Become Political Rivals
The race also features an unusual personal connection.
Before becoming political opponents, Shah and Feely were both part of the New York Jets organization in 2008-2009 seasons.
Shah served as an emergency physician on the sidelines while Feely was the team’s kicker.
Feely recently described it as “an old relationship,” saying he wanted to run a respectful campaign regardless of who emerged as the Democratic nominee.
What Happens Next
National Democrats are expected to unite behind Shah despite backing a rival during the primary. He will likely require substantial financial support from party committees and outside groups to compete in one of the country’s most expensive House battlegrounds.
Republicans, meanwhile, view Feely as a candidate capable of appealing beyond the GOP base and retaining a seat they cannot afford to lose.
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