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Bertha is kicking up tropical storm-force winds and dangerous beach conditions as tracks along the northern Gulf Coast, but its moisture will also help fuel a more serious flooding rain threat hundreds of miles away on the East Coast through the end of the week.
Bertha has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and will graze or make landfall on the southeast Louisiana coast Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. But many locations might not notice its arrival other than an uptick in windy conditions, as most of its rainfall remains offshore.
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Instead, tropical moisture from Bertha will partly play a role in unleashing a much bigger flooding rain threat along a cold front over southeast Virginia, parts of the Carolinas and northern Georgia through Thursday.
Bertha itself is forecast to weaken as it trudges west into coastal Texas by Thursday evening. The storm or its remnants will bring rain and possibly gusty winds there while still sending tropical moisture to storms in the Southeast.
Bertha is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has gotten off to a slow start compared to recent years as El Niño tightens its grip on parts of the basin.
Bertha’s Gulf Coast threats
Bertha continues to be a poorly organized and lopsided storm. Despite fuel from near-record warm Gulf water, unfavorable high-altitude winds will keep its heaviest rain and strongest winds offshore as it tracks westward along the Louisiana Gulf Coast through Thursday morning.
Still, tropical storm conditions will impact areas from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans, through Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical storm warning is effect for these areas, which means sustained 39+ mph winds are expected. Tropical storm watches are in effect as far west as southeastern Texas.
The storm is also hurling some bands of rain into the Gulf Coast, but the risk of flash flooding is low.
Beaches from the Florida Panhandle westward to Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana will see dangerous conditions because of coastal flooding, rough surf and a high risk of rip currents through at least Thursday.
Bertha is forecast to track toward the southwest Louisiana and Texas coasts while weakening through Thursday night, but it might not make it that far west. The storm is already battling unfavorable atmospheric conditions and interaction with land, which deprives it of warm-water fuel, could cause Bertha to dissipate sooner.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in coastal Texas since Bertha is currently forecast to remain intact and push ashore there Thursday evening. Regardless, the storm or its remnants could at least increase rainfall in this area by Thursday afternoon.
Bertha helps fuel flood threat in the East
The storm system that on Tuesday caused historic flooding in West Virginia and wreaked havoc from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast will linger across Virginia and the Southeast through the end of the week.
Bertha’s moisture and that system’s stalling front are already producing bands of rain in eastern Tennessee, southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. Storms in northeast Tennessee prompted flash flood warnings to the north of Knoxville on Wednesday morning, with some places seeing up to 5 inches of rain within a few hours.
There are more rounds of rain to come through Friday, and some areas could even pick up to a month’s worth of rain in just a few days.
The rainfall in southern Virginia and North Carolina is needed to help quench drought conditions there, but too much rain repeating over the same areas over hours or days could quickly cause dangerous flash flooding.
At least localized flash flooding is possible as far west as Atlanta, northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee.
A back-to-back Level 3 of 4 risk of flooding rain is in place for a section of the Virginia-North Carolina border into Friday morning.
A Level 2 of 4 risk covers much of the Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian region and parts of the Southeast.
The Level 3 risk area could see up to 6 inches of rain, with greater amounts possible in localized areas where storms stall. A more widespread area will receive between 2 and 4 inches.
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