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- Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday.
- Investors will be eyeing updates on the company's AI initiatives, as well as a possible SpaceX merger.
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Tesla used to be the main event for earnings season. Retail investors hung on every number and word, and big price swings almost always ensued.
Now, with the EV-maker set to report today, the buzz is minimal. Tesla has been replaced by SpaceX as the Elon Musk investment vehicle most favored by day traders. It's also decoupled from its fellow Magnificent 7 members — especially hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta — as Musk largely funnels his AI ambitions into SpaceX.
But just because Tesla is out of the zeitgeist for the moment doesn't mean it'll stay quiet forever. One surprise or major announcement from Musk could reinvigorate a stock that's been left out of the 2026 market rally, and has struggled mightily to reclaim record levels.
As the chart below shows, shares are down 16% year to date, having reached all-time highs in December 2025. It's been a volatile grind higher for years. In Elon We Trust.
Here are three main themes investors should watch heading into Tesla earnings after the closing bell today:
Robotaxis and robots as Tesla's primary AI plays
Tesla is a fairly unique company in that its most closely watched metric — vehicle deliveries — was already reported for the quarter a few weeks ago. So investors aren't going to be hanging on a specific number. They're instead going to be watching for updates on Tesla's robotaxi business, as well as its Optimus robot.
For robotaxis, investors will be watching for updates on the pace of expansion, new cities, the safety and regulatory process, and any timeline guidance on the Cybercab. For Optimus, they'll be looking for signs that the humanoid robot is moving from concept to commercial reality.
A possible SpaceX merger
Once a fringe idea, the prospect of Musk's two public-market titans merging has gathered steam. Ahead of earnings, shareholders took to an online Tesla investor forum to ask executives about it.
Given the interest, it wouldn't be surprising if the merger came up on the call. Longtime Tesla investor Ross Gerber expects it to. If it does, what Musk or the company says could be the biggest headline from the report.
Can the car business continue to fund other ambitions?
Did you ever think we'd be talking about Tesla's EV business — once one of the stock market's foremost speculative moonshots — as a rock-solid source of capital for even more ambitious endeavors? Well, we're there.
All across the stock market, tech firms need money for capex. They need it now, and a lot of it. There are always capital markets, which Tesla does tap, but the EV business is the engine that makes it run.
The question for investors is a familiar one, just in a different industry. Do they think Tesla is overspending, and are they satisfied with how they're getting money to use?
It's the type of question we'll be hearing continuously throughout earnings season.
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