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Toronto Maple Leafs rookie Gavin McKenna has yet to play an NHL game, but expectations are rising already. NHL analyst Carlo Colaiacovo added to the excitement with a bold prediction ahead of the 2026-27 season.
Speaking on TSN 1050 Radio’s First Up, Colaiacovo was asked what was more likely. The choices were McKenna winning the Calder Trophy or Auston Matthews finishing among the NHL’s top five goal scorers.
Matthews would likely need at least 45 goals to reach that mark. Speaking about which, Colaiacovo admitted he is not convinced that will happen despite believing the captain will improve.
“Let’s just reflect on what last year’s goal-scoring leaderboard looked like,” Colaiacovo said. “Nathan MacKinnon finished with 53 and won the Rocket. Cole Caufield had 51, Connor McDavid had 48, and then there were four players tied at 45.
“So those are the top five goal scorers. We’re basically suggesting that Auston Matthews has to score 45 or more goals in the NHL next year to finish in the top five. I’m not banking on that.”
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Colaiacovo acknowledged Matthews remains an elite scorer but pointed to the difficulty of reaching 40 goals every season.
“I think Matthews will be better this year, and it all depends on what system Jim Hiller implements with this group, but 45 goals, man, I can’t,” Colaiacovo said. “… it’s hard to score 40-plus goals in the NHL every season.”
But then he mentioned, “Is Matthews capable of it? Yes.”
Colaiacovo on Gavin McKenna
Colaiacovo then made his choice, saying, “I’m going with Gavin McKenna to win Rookie of the Year because I think he’s going to have 60-plus points in his rookie season.”
Aaron Korolnek welcomed the prediction and explained what that production could mean.
“If Gavin McKenna has 60-plus points, they’re definitely making the playoffs,” he said.
Toronto enters the season with renewed optimism after selecting McKenna first overall. The club missed the playoffs in 2025-26 after finishing last in the Atlantic Division.
So, McKenna’s opportunity could reshape Toronto’s future.
Maple Leafs’ expected Gavin McKenna plans
The Maple Leafs are expected to place McKenna alongside Matthews on the top line. The rookie is also expected to work the half-wall on the first power-play unit.
Matthews will enter training camp fully recovered from knee surgery after posting 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games last season. He remains the centerpiece of Toronto’s lineup under new coach Jim Hiller.
Colaiacovo also praised McKenna’s offseason preparation, saying, “I mean, have you seen Gavin McKenna? He is in the lab training right now.” After which, Korolnek noted the rookie was looking “good’ training alongside Macklin Celebrini this summer.
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Colaiacovo’s prediction is bold but understandable. Calder winners often benefit from prime offensive opportunities, and McKenna appears set for exactly that.
Matthews still has the talent to score 45 goals. However, returning from a serious knee injury adds uncertainty. McKenna’s path may actually be clearer because Toronto intends to give him every chance to succeed immediately.
If McKenna reaches 60 points, the Maple Leafs could return to playoff contention this year.
