3M Open picks 2026: The vibes are immaculate for Max Homa

The majors are done but the betting doesn't stop. We roll right along to the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, where some longer shots have fared well since the tournament's inception in 2019.

RELATED: 3M Open DFS picks 2026: My model loves this young stud this week

There's just one tiny problem with that—Scottie Scheffler is surprisingly in the field this week, acting as the elephant in the room when it comes to placing outrights. He keeps getting closer and closer, and now he comes to an event where he is a class above everyone else in the field. Fortunately, for those of us who like to sprinkle around, they don't just hand you the tournament. You still have to go out and make the birdies. And a lot of guys are going to make a lot of birdies this week, too.

The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.

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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 3M Open:

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Jake Knapp (40-1, FanDuel) — Knapp’s results have been pitiful since his return from injury. Four starts, three missed cuts, and he only saw the weekend in a no-cut event at the Travelers. Those poor performances were not all created equal, though. In his first two starts (U.S. Open and Travelers), he was one of the worst ball-strikers in the field, dropping over a stroke and a half per round. In Scotland and at The Open, Knapp’s ball-striking returned, gaining with his driver and irons. His putter simply went cold, losing a stroke per round over his four rounds on the British Isles. Returning to ball-striking form is exactly what we want to see after a wrist injury. Poor putting on fescue grass halfway around the world? Not that concerning. Knapp had shorter odds in stronger events pre-injury, so getting him this far down the board in a weak event like this, which plays to his strengths (T-3 in 2025), means people are only looking at the outputs and ignoring the inputs.

Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Jackson Suber (50-1, BetMGM) — In his past seven starts, Jackson Suber has three top-six finishes. In contention again at The Open, it did not work out but consider the moment. Suber has been great in these weaker field events, gaining a ton of shots tee to green. That DNA is exactly what we need for the 3M. Compound his competitive play with a FedEx Cup rank of 79, Jackson can’t take a week off after The Open. Suber needs to push himself if he plans to make the playoffs.

Read The Line's Joe Idone and John Haslbauer explain why they're betting Jackson Suber at the 2026 3M Open:

Watch Read The Line's full betting breakdown of the 2026 3M Open here.

Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Jackson Koivun (36-1, DraftKings) — TPC Twin Cities is a place that can create a lot of separation on the leaderboard due to the high birdie and bogey (or worse) rates. I’m looking for golfers who are elite tee-to-green players, who I trust to keep the ball in play off the tee, and who have the ability to spike on these bentgrass greens. Koivun isn’t particularly long off the tee at this stage of his career, but he ranks third in distance from the edge of the fairway and fourth in total driving in his limited sample over the past 12 months, and he’s gained 0.52 strokes putting in his limited PGA Tour starts to date. I think he makes some noise against these softer fields over the next few weeks, and that starts here.

Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Johnny Keefer (60-1, FanDuel) — Keefer will be a popular click this week but for great reasons at these odds. He’s seventh in SG/approach over the past 30 rounds, 14th in SG/off the tee, seventh in Birdie or Better percentage and top 20 in wedge proximity from 100-150 yards. That’s a winning formula if he can putt like he did in Europe. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Sam Stevens (55-1, BetMGM) — Links golf didn’t quite agree with Sam Stevens, who missed both cuts at the Scottish and British. TPC Twin Cities, where he finished runner-up a year ago and T-10 in 2023, is much more his speed. Bang driver everywhere, hit it close and make a million putts. Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Corey Conners (45-1, BetMGM) — Corey Conners has been quietly playing some great golf, and he snuck into a top-15 finish at the Open where he gained over seven strokes on approach. TPC Twin Cities is one of the better course fits for Conners on tour, and I expect him to keep up his elite iron play.

Past results: We have our FOURTH winner of 2026, and our first stretch of back-to-back winners. Ryan Noonan and Stephen Hennessey both correctly picked Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1250, giving Noonan his third win of 2026 (and his second in a row with the Fitzpatrick bros. at 12-1 at Zurich) and Hennessey his second, his first coming at the Farmers (Justin Rose 60-1). Noonan also nailed Nico Echavarria’s victory at the Cognizant at 60-1. Hop on the train while you can.

Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

3M Open picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Mayo: Ben James (55-1, FanDuel) — Back on the 23-year-old James for the third straight week. While he hasn’t won, he has been mixing it up near the top of the leaderboard each time. He’s been one of the most accurate players on tour since joining the big circuit at the Canadian Open and has started to light it up with his irons and putter. He’s been the victim of one bad round in every start. Fortunately, those bad rounds have started to become "slightly below average" rather than "tournament-ending." Stewart: Max Homa (60-1, Fanatics) — Max Homa is gaining an average of 5.9 strokes on the field over his past five starts. Now Homa heads to a venue where he has played well. Max finished T-3 here in 2020 and has played the weekend in every 3M start (three times) in his career. When Homa is excelling tee to green, he keeps the ball in play, and that’s a major key at TPC Twin Cities. Positive vibes at this venue and a ball-striking trend that cannot be ignored. Looking for a former PGA Tour winner with odds value in Minnesota, you’ll be happy with Homa. Noonan: Johnny Keefer (60-1, FanDuel) — Keefer has been exceptional tee-to-green, gaining 1.47 strokes on the field per round over his past 24 rounds. He has three T-10 or better finishes on Tour this season, including a T-3 in Scotland just two weeks ago. The former Korn Ferry Tour POY can go low, and we’ve seen that this season when the scoring conditions are on the easier side. Keefer has a 27.8 percent birdie or better rate, one of the best marks in the field, over the past 12 months when the scoring conditions are easier than average.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Emiliano Grillo (100-1, DraftKings) — Grillo has gained over 12 strokes to the field with his putter in his past two starts. Usually he’s on the starting five of Team No-Putt. The ball-striking stats don’t look great recently, but his longer-term baseline is positive—so I’m banking on him spending the past two weeks getting back to his DNA, and if he keeps up the hot putter, he can contend again at TPC Twin Cities. Powers, Golf Digest: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson (65-1, FanDuel) — RNP’s approach game is his weak point, but he’s been able to reign it in over the last two months, even spiking last week at the Open, where he tied for ninth. Now he comes to a place where he can let the big dog eat, which he loves to do. The Dane has gained strokes OTT in 12 straight starts, per datagolf. He also has a big-time win in the last calendar year, taking down Cameron Smith by one stroke at the Australian Open this past December. Lack: Mac Meissner (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — While Mac Meissner did not play in the Open, he finished 39th at the Scottish Open, gaining 3.9 strokes on approach. Meissner also finished 14th at TPC Twin Cities last year, and this should be a great golf course for him if he can keep the ball in play off the tee.

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Mayo: Corey Conners (40-1, FanDuel) — Shockingly, putting is still a part of golf. Stewart: Hideki Matsuyama (28-1, DraftKings) — TPC Twin Cities is not a venue where Hideki Matsuyama has putted well. Just two tournament starts in the last month, Matsuyama was 100-1 at The Open! A terrible value and known to be inaccurate off the tee, I’ll take a week off from Hideki.

Noonan: Tony Finau (50-1, BetRivers) — The course history buffs are going to flock to Finau this week, but he’s nowhere near the ball-striker that he was 4-5 years ago when he was rattling off T-10s here. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Maverick McNealy (+2350, DraftKings) — McNealy’s been one of the most inaccurate drivers of the ball in 2026, ranking 122nd in driving accuracy this season. That can be costly at TPC Twin Cities, and couple that with two straight weeks losing on approach, I’m happy to play against him. Powers, Golf Digest: Muzzy Donohue (4000-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Incredible name. Would actually love to see a guy named Muzzy win. Not happening, at least this week. Lack: Maverick McNealy (+2350, DraftKings) — I just need to see a little stronger ball-striking out of a player that is priced so highly on the odds board. Putting is also McNealy’s greatest skill right now and that aspect of the game is neither predictive nor descriptive at TPC Twin Cities.

Mayo: Ben James (+100) over Sungjae Im (CoolBet) — Hitting a few approaches inside 15 feet may be required this week. Sungjae doesn’t really do that any more. Stewart: Doug Ghim (-138) over Jake Knapp (FanDuel) — Jake Knapp has not made a 36-hole cut since returning from injury. The Travelers did not have a cut. With an inconsistent driver and iron game, what better time to steer away from Jake on a very penal layout? Dough Ghim is ranked fourth in the field for strokes gained T2G. Ghim’s accuracy avoids penalty strokes and gives us a win before the weekend. Noonan: Jordan Smith (-107) over Doug Ghim (Pinnacle) — Jordan Smith has been under the radar a bit this season. He hasn’t made a ton of noise on the weekend, but he’s been grinding out solid finishes. He’ll play from the fairway here give himself a ton of birdie looks, as will Doug Ghim, but I’ll take Smith once we get to the green. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jackson Koivun (+110) over Maverick McNealy (FanDuel) — The young star’s overall game should suit TPC Twin Cities pretty well, so I’ll continue my fade of McNealy in this matchup.

Powers, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (-122) over Jake Knapp (DraftKings) — Knapp just has not been the same player since the injury issue began flaring up. He has played through it, but not well. Mitch, meanwhile, has made eight out of 10 cuts with a T-4 at the U.S. Open and a solo fifth at the Byron Nelson in that span. Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (-115) over Maverick McNealy (Bookmaker) — TPC Twin Cities strongly emphasizes the importance of overall approach play, and Hideki Matsuyama is far superior to McNealy in this category. McNealy has been struggling with his ball-striking of late, and his coming off a missed cut at the Open where he lost over two strokes on approach. Matchup Results from the British Open: Stewart: PUSH (Lowry (-114) over Cantlay); Lack: PUSH (Fowler (-120) over Reitan); Noonan: PUSH (Morikawa (+105) over Schauffele); Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1 Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Stewart: 15-7-3 (up 6.22 units); Powers: 17-10-0 (up 5.29 units); Mayo: 14-12-1 (up 2.3 units); Lack: 15-10-2 (up 1.56 units); Noonan: 12-11-4 (down 0.4 units); Hennessey: 10-15-2 (down 5.98 units)

Mayo: Max Homa (+470, FanDuel) — Strangely, his worst finish over the past two months came in the weakest field he’s played. Even including his T-39 at the ISCO, Homa has gained on the greens and off the tee in every start while posting positive numbers on approach in four of the five. His numbers are starting to look like Tom Kim’s metrics before Scotland. Stewart: William Mouw (+750, FanDuel) — The 3M Open calls for a great ball-striker who needs to shine with the putter for one week. William Mouw has the tee-to-green resume to contend at TPC Twin Cities, but will the putter show up? He finished seventh in 2025 in his first start at the 3M, and he gained over seven strokes on the field with his flatstick. The value and trend are there, and it’s not like we are asking him to beat Scheffler. Ten places and we are good! Noonan: Emiliano Grillo (+700, FanDuel) — Emiliano Grillo has played well in his past five starts, though he hasn’t truly contended since a solid showing at the Valspar back in March. His past three starts have been encouraging, though, with a T-20 in Canada, a T-23 at Shinnecock and a T-26 last time out at the John Deere Classic. Grillo likes these bentgrass greens, especially the ones here. Grillo hasn’t won here, but he’s finished T-3, MC, T-2, T-10, T-24, and T-20 at this event, while gaining strokes putting in every stop outside of the missed cut in 2021. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Corey Conners (+470, FanDuel) — Conners led the field at Royal Birkdale in SG/approach, and his accuracy off the tee will be perfect for TPC Twin Cities. Powers, Golf Digest: Aaron Wise (+1600, FanDuel) — Wise has been on the comeback trail since February, but nobody noticed it because he missed six consecutive cuts. Over the last three weeks, though, he has re-entered the fray, tying for 39th at the John Deere, tying for third at the ISCO and tying for 15th at Corales. It’s hard to believe his first win on the PGA Tour came in 2018, and even harder to believe he hasn’t won again since. He’s dealt with a lot on and off the course in the time since, but he’s quickly reminded us of his talent this month. Lack: Doug Ghim (+430, FanDuel) — I am going to continue to ride Doug Ghim, and despite my pessimism that he can win the tournament, I could very much see him contending on the strength of his ball-striking alone. Ghim has been driving the ball incredibly well and remains one of the best middle iron players in the field, both skills that should pay major dividends at TPC Twin Cities.

Top-10 results from the British Open: Everybody: 0 for 1 Top-10 results from the 2026season: Mayo: 10 for 27 (up 42.55 units); Lack: 8 for 27 (up 14.1 units); Stewart: 7 for 27 (up 5.05 units); Powers: 6 for 27 (up 2.25 units); Noonan: 5 for 27 (down 7.5 units); Hennessey: 5 for 27 (down 7.6 units) About our experts Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry's best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_. Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.