XRP flashes TD sequential buy signal: Can it rally 20%?

XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) has put together a strong few days, climbing back toward $1.13 this week just as a closely watched signal flashed on its monthly chart. Analyst Ali Martinez on X flagged it as a TD Sequential buy signal, which has put XRP back in the spotlight.

Martinez highlights that if the XRP price manages to break above $1.13, it could rally toward $1.30 or even $1.35, which is a 15% to 20% move from where XRP trades right now. And that is a lot to pin on a single signal. Could XRP pull off a 20% move and reclaim $1.30—the floor it defended for the first half of the year before breaking down in June?

XRP's TD Sequential Buy Signal

After a long decline that pulled XRP down from its $3.65 peak, a signal called the TD Sequential just completed on its monthly chart, and it points to the year-long downtrend running out of steam.

The TD Sequential is a tool built by trader Tom DeMark to spot when a trend is losing momentum. It counts candles, and the buy setup finishes once nine of them in a row each close lower than the candle four periods earlier. In plain terms, that is a long, unbroken stretch of selling. Traders mark the ninth candle with a "9," and once it appears, it suggests the selling may be worn out, with sellers losing their grip and a bounce becoming more likely.

On an hourly chart, TD signals appear constantly and mean very little, because a single hour of trading barely moves the bigger trend. This one completed on the monthly chart, where each candle is a full month of buying and selling, so a finished setup only shows up once every few years. A signal built on that much trading carries far more weight than the short-term noise, which is why a monthly "9" on a coin XRP's size caught the market's attention.

It's worth being clear about what the signal does and doesn't say too. It flags possible exhaustion, not a confirmed reversal. It reflects that the selling may be ending, not that the buying has begun, and seasoned traders usually wait for the next few candles to confirm before trusting it. 

How Strong Is the XRP Buy Signal?

What makes this setup more convincing than a lone chart pattern is that several indicators are pointing the same way. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), another momentum indicator, has also turned to a buy reading for XRP. When two independent indicators line up, the signal is sturdier than either one alone. 

Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has climbed back to around 53, into neutral territory. It is no longer showing the deep oversold readings it printed on the way down, which means the heavy selling has cooled off.

XRP’s price action also supports the signals. XRP spent the past weeks defending the $1 area while much of the market looked weak, and this week it has clawed back toward $1.13. That floor held while the momentum signals quietly turned, and a base that refuses to break paired with momentum starting to shift is what the early stage of a recovery tends to look like.

That said, there is an honest limit to all of this. Easing is not the same as reversing. And every one of these signals is saying the bears are winding down, not that the bulls have taken charge. So, it is a genuinely strong setup that is still waiting for confirmation.

Can the XRP Price Rally 20%?

The TD Sequential signal reveals that the selling looks exhausted, but it says nothing about whether a rally is coming or how high the price could go. The 20% target is a separate read from Ali Martinez, based on where XRP could travel if that exhaustion turns into a genuine recovery. XRP would need to clear two hurdles first.

The $1.13 level is the first. It has capped XRP's rallies before, and the 50-day moving average is just above it, so it takes strong buying pressure to break through. So far XRP has only reached the level, not broken past it just yet.

If XRP breaks above $1.13 and holds it, it would run into a bigger barrier overhead. Roughly 22.8 million XRP were bought in the $1.18 to $1.19 band, and another 27.4 million around $1.21 to $1.22. Those are the prices where many underwater holders finally return to break-even, and a good number will sell there rather than risk another drop. That leaves a heavy wall of supply between $1.13 and the $1.30 target.

If XRP clears both hurdles, the 20% move opens up. It would need to break and hold $1.13, push through the supply between $1.18 and $1.22, and then $1.30 to $1.35 comes into range. This is a move worth 15% at the low end and the full 20% at the high end. 

What Could Push XRP Higher?

What XRP needs in order to rally is buyers, and the chart can't provide them. A signal can show the sellers are worn out, but only fresh money coming in can push the price higher, and a "9" on a monthly candle doesn't create that money.

More buyers would most likely arrive once XRP's regulatory status is made permanent, clearing the way for more institutions and bigger funds to move in. That is what the CLARITY Act would do, locking in the SEC and CFTC's classification of XRP as a digital commodity so a future administration couldn't reverse it. 

With that settled, the institutional buying XRP has been missing would finally have a reason to show up, and that’s something no chart signal can produce on its own. Without it, a tired downtrend can drift sideways just as easily as it can turn around.

Moreover, the TD Sequential signal has been wrong before, and badly. Monthly signals on Bitcoin have misfired in past cycles and cost traders who followed them blindly a fortune in missed gains. So it is a reason to watch XRP, not a reason to bet the house on it. Until XRP breaks above $1.13 with conviction, the 20% rally is a door the chart has unlocked, but not one XRP has walked through.

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