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The Marquette University Law School plans to poll again in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor after late-changing campaign dynamics upended the latest survey.
Marquette will release the new poll July 29, just under two weeks before voters head to the polls Aug. 11.
The latest poll, released July 22, didn't include Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley but still included Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out after poll interviews concluded.
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Marquette conducted the poll between July 8 and July 16. News about Rodriguez firing her campaign manager broke late in the day July 12, so the poll captured some of her campaign's unraveling. But she didn't drop out of the race until July 17, after the polling ended.
Crowley had dropped out of the race July 8 but jumped back in July 18, also after the Marquette polling ended, with the backing of Gov. Tony Evers. He wasn't among the choices respondents could choose from when asked who they plan to vote for.
Marquette poll director Charles Franklin said he never considered scrapping the poll.
"Knowing where the race stood a week ago is really valuable," he told reporters after the poll release event at Marquette's Eckstein Hall.
The poll still showed Francesca Hong leading the race, who her supporters are, and a substantial amount – 45% – of Democratic voters who remain undecided just weeks out from the election, he said.
Plus, Rodriguez was only polling at 11%, a "somewhat distant third place" behind Hong and Mandela Barnes, Franklin noted.
"I think it was easy to fall into an assumption that [Rodriguez] had really surged a lot over most of July," he said. "But the public still had not really come to her in a big way."
During a public event at Marquette's Eckstein Hall on July 22, Franklin showed how results changed when Rodriguez was removed from the equation – such as who Rodriguez supporters named as their second-choice candidate.
"The events of last week should convince everybody that campaigns matter, and events happen during a campaign that people didn't expect, and that can change the nature of the race," he said.
When does the next Wisconsin Marquette poll come out?
Marquette will release a new survey July 29 at 11 a.m., slightly earlier than their typical poll release events. The release will come one day after in-person early voting begins July 28 and the only televised debate scheduled between the candidates.
The poll will include a sample of Democratic primary voters and focus entirely on the Aug. 11 Democratic primary, not the Nov. 3 general election. The survey will also gauge voters' awareness of Evers' endorsement of Crowley.
Interviews for the new poll will be conducted between July 22 and 27. Marquette will also re-interview people from the mid-July poll, "so we'll be able to look at how opinion may have changed from this week to next week," Franklin said.
Franklin said he decided to go back into the field over the weekend "when everything broke down." Marquette didn't originally plan to release another poll before the Aug. 11 election.
"We put it off for a few days to let the news circulate a little bit, but the other side is wanting to get a read sooner rather than later, since there's demands for a new poll," Franklin said.
Hope Karnopp can be reached at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: With changes in the governor's race, Marquette will do another poll
