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Key Points
ASML's outlook is improving as AI capex spending booms.
The company is benefiting from a shortage of memory chips.
ASML is well-positioned to be a long-term winner from AI.
Like much of the semiconductor sector, ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) was a big winner in the first six months of 2026 as the company benefited from improving sentiment and increasing expectations from the AI boom. ASML is the world's only maker of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines, which enable the production of the most advanced semiconductors. As a maker of semiconductor equipment, it's been slow to benefit from the AI boom, but it showed signs of acceleration in the first half of the year and benefited from surging investor sentiment in the sector.
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock gained 87% over the first six months of the year. As you can see from the chart below, the stock moved higher throughout most of that period, taking a pause in March as the Iran war weighed on the stock market.
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ASML has its moment
After years of watching peers like Nvidia soar on the AI boom, ASML finally began to capitalize on the tech revolution this year.
The windfall in the memory sector and elsewhere among chipmakers finally seems to be benefiting ASML as orders are increasing and it's raising prices.
ASML kicked off the year with strong momentum as multiple Wall Street analysts upgraded the restock, reflecting higher estimates and improving demand for its EUV machines.
The stock actually pulled back briefly on its January earnings report as modest increases on the top and bottom lines, strong guidance for 2026, and a 17% dividend increase weren't quite enough to live up to expectations. The company is also said it was cutting around 1,700 jobs to free up capital to invest in innovation.
The company followed that up with solid first-quarter results in April, near the high end of its guidance range, but the stock pulled back once more. Finally, it surged in May and June on a broader AI boom as investors bet that it would be a winner from the surge in AI capex spending and the bumper profits in the memory sector.
What's next for ASML
While ASML lacks the explosive growth of pure-play chip stocks, it makes up for it with competitive positioning, as it should be a long-term winner from the capex supercycle from AI.
Still, at least some of those expectations are baked into the stock after shares nearly doubled in the first half of the year. Look for the company to raise its long-term guidance for 44 billion-60 billion euros in 2030 in the coming quarters as proof that it is seeing a sustained tailwind from AI.
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Jeremy Bowman has positions in ASML and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
