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Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson have reset the forward market, but Matthew Schaefer could redefine defensemen's salaries, and a $12.5 million AAV may only be the starting point.
That was the discussion on Up The Turnpike with Mitch Andersen and Matt O'Leary as Connor Bedard's $15 million five-year extension and Leo Carlsson's $18 million deal after Anaheim matched the Flyers' offer sheet have already sparked the inevitable question around the New York Islanders.
What will Matthew Schaefer's second contract look like?
While the eye-popping numbers for elite forwards grab headlines, comparing Schaefer to them isn't the right exercise. Defensemen have their own market, and that's where the conversation should begin. Right now, the highest-paid defensemen in the NHL are in the $12.5 million range, making that the logical starting point—not the ceiling—for Schaefer's next contract. If he continues on his current trajectory, it's difficult to envision the Islanders signing him for anything less.
The production already supports that argument. Schaefer finished his rookie season with 59 points, including 23 goals and 36 assists, numbers that already surpass the best offensive season of Bowen Byram's career. Byram's career-high came at 42 points, yet he still earned a lucrative long-term extension. Schaefer reached another level before even turning 19.
Then there's the salary cap.
The NHL's financial landscape is expected to look dramatically different by the time Schaefer becomes extension eligible. League projections have the cap climbing to roughly $113.5 million in 2027-28 before jumping again to approximately $123 million in 2028-29, when a new deal would likely begin.
That changing economic environment could make today's record-setting contracts look modest.
If $12.5 million represents the current market for elite defensemen, Schaefer's negotiating floor may already be established. With continued growth and another few dominant seasons, the conversation may no longer be whether he reaches $15 million annually and if that could actually be considered him leaving money on the table.
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This article was originally published on eyesonisles.com as Why a NY Islanders Matthew Schaefer extension could shatter the NHL market.
