SerpApi.Org
Investors on the prediction market Kalshi see a 52% probability that U.S. gasoline prices will climb above $4.80 by the end of this year, signaling growing concern over sustained fuel costs amid global uncertainty.
According to Kalshi, about 48% of investors are betting prices will exceed $4.60, while 30% predict gasoline will top $5.00 per gallon before the year closes out.
For the near term, Kalshi investors are similarly bullish on rising prices. The prediction market shows 63% of investors expect gasoline to surpass $4.16 this month, with 57% betting on prices exceeding $4.18. Roughly 47% of Kalshi investors see odds of gasoline climbing above $4.20 in the coming weeks.
These predictions align with recent real-world price movements reported by the American Automobile Association. According to AAA data, the national average price for regular gasoline recently rose to $4.003 a gallon, crossing back above the $4 threshold for the first time in about a month.
The American Automobile Association attributes the sudden rebound in pump costs to escalating conflict in the Middle East, which has "heightened concerns over energy supplies" and pushed up crude oil (CL1:COM) and refined fuel prices globally.
While current U.S. prices remain below the more than $4.50 per gallon average reached in May, according to AAA, the Kalshi market sentiment suggests investors see significant risk of a prolonged fuel surge.
With nearly one-third of prediction market participants betting on prices exceeding $5.00 by year's end, consumers may want to brace for continued volatility at the pump.
