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Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to cross Louisiana, near the Mississippi coast, and later reach the upper Texas coast before the end of the week. Bertha's main risk to lives and property will be from flooding rain and storm surge.
Even though Bertha is far from some of the powerhouse hurricanes that have struck the central Gulf Coast over the years, its impacts from heavy rain and rising Gulf waters should not be taken lightly.
Bertha is what AccuWeather meteorologists refer to as a homebrew tropical storm because it formed within a few hundred miles of the United States coast-in this case, over the northeastern Gulf. This particular area was under AccuWeather's watchful eye for well over a week before the storm formed.
As of Wednesday morning, Bertha had maximum winds of 50 mph, with the sprawling center tracking directly toward southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Panhandle. "Some fluctuation in strength is possible before the storm moves inland over southeastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
| This image of Tropical Storm Bertha was captured on Wednesday morning, July 22, 2026. The center of Bertha was located just to the northeast of the colorful clouds due to northerly wind shear. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite) |
"We have been seeing a storm surge of 2-3 feet in portions of the Florida Panhandle, in the panhandles of Alabama and Mississippi and in southeastern Louisiana," AccuWeather On-Air Reporter Anna Azallion said. "A similar storm surge is anticipated to spread farther to the west along the central Gulf Coast. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ surge is 5 feet."
Much of the thunderstorm activity with Bertha has been south of the center and over the Gulf. However, as the storm moves inland, some changes in the structure of the storm's showers and thunderstorms are likely, with bands of heavy rain forecast to wrap over the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi, and especially over southern Louisiana, DaSilva stated.
A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall from the panhandle westward to the upper Texas coast into Saturday. Most of the rain from Bertha has already fallen across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the eastern Florida Panhandle. Downpours will focus from the western part of the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana into Thursday. As the storm moves along to the west, the downpours will spread westward across southern Louisiana into coastal Texas into the end of the week.
Pockets of heavier rain (4-8 inches) are anticipated along the immediate path of Bertha, especially in southeastern Louisiana. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 15 inches.
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"The center of Bertha is forecast to briefly move back over the Gulf for a brief time on Wednesday night, and there is a remote chance of some minimal reorganization prior to pushing inland over the upper Texas coast on Thursday," DaSilva explained.
AccuWeather meteorologists are cautiously factoring in some variability with Bertha's track, structure and strength after its first landfall in Louisiana.
"Sometimes, in situations like this, the center of the storm may jump toward the bulk of the thunderstorm activity, which is farther to the south of where the lowest pressures are and the circulation is," DaSilva said.
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If Bertha were to remain over southern Louisiana and not make it back to the Gulf, much of its circulation could diminish prior to reaching Texas, and the storm would quickly transition from a tropical depression to a tropical rainstorm.
If the center were to jog (or re-form) a bit more to the south and spend a few extra hours over the Gulf, gusty winds could reach the Texas coast, and locally heavy rain could extend beyond the immediate Texas coast and reach into the central parts of the state.
Much of Bertha's problematic winds will be confined to the Interstate 10 corridor, similar to most of its rain. Tropical-storm-force winds of 40-60 mph are most likely to occur briefly in squalls and thunderstorms.
There is the potential for a few severe thunderstorms to occur along Bertha's westward path. With these, a couple of tornadoes and waterspouts could be spawned.
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