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Tropical Storm Bertha strengthened as expected in the Gulf, but forecasters are still predicting it will not become a hurricane as it battles wind shear.
The National Hurricane Center announced at 5 p.m. July 21 tropical storm conditions were spreading westward along coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle.
Impacts from the tropical storm are expected to bring storm surge, gusty winds, and heavy rain with a potential of some flash flooding, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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A tropical storm watch in Florida was upgraded to a tropical storm warning, and spreads from the Bay/Gulf County line west to the Florida/Alabama border.
"Overall, Bertha is a low-grade tropical threat to North Florida and the Central Gulf Coast, and overall won’t be much different from a normal summer mix of sun and rain away from the immediate coast," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
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Wind shear affecting Bertha is likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur on the southern side of the storm center, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 5 p.m., July 21:
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Bertha is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center is experimenting with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
- Location: 105 miles west-southwest of Panama City
- Maximum wind speed: 60 mph
- Direction: northwest at 6 mph
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Bertha
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Bertha
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Is Florida in the path of Tropical Storm Bertha?
No. As of 5 p.m. July 21, Tropical Storm Bertha was moving northwest at 6 mph.
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Bertha is expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest tonight, July 21, with a continued westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday, July 22 through July 24.
Remember, the path and strength of a storm can change rapidly. Remain vigilant and stay prepared.
Have any hurricane or tropical storm watches, warnings been issued for Florida?
Yes.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama border.
How will Tropical Storm Bertha impact Florida?
"Overall, Bertha is a low-grade tropical threat to North Florida and the Central Gulf Coast, and overall won’t be much different from a normal summer mix of sun and rain away from the immediate coast," Truchelut said.
"With its loose structure and marginal support for further intensification, Bertha's impacts should be mostly limited to periodic rainbands along the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast through midweek as its center shambles towards the western Florida Panhandle or points west."
Tropical storm conditions are spreading westward along coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle today, July 21, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through July 23 along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said.
Areas of flash flooding will be possible through July 23 along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from the Florida Big Bend region to southern Louisiana, although the heaviest rain is forecast to remain over the Gulf, the National Weather Service Mobile said.
"The immediate coast from Cedar Key to Mobile could see peak gusts of low-end tropical-storm force (40-50 mph) in squally bands," Truchelut said.
"For inland areas of the Panhandle, a few localized gusts into the low-end tropical storm range are possible in the heaviest bands, but Bertha will not be a widespread wind damage event."
Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
There's a high risk of rip currents along the northern Gulf Coast, with surf building throughout the day and breakers of 8-11 feet late tonight through Wednesday night, the National Weather Service Mobile said.
Minor beach erosion possible in the middle to latter part of the week.
How strong is Tropical Storm Bertha and where is it going?
At 5 p.m. ET, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 87.2 West.
Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight, with a continued westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday.
On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days or so.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, and gradual weakening is forecast Wednesday through Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Panama City Beach, Florida, reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust of 57 mph during the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Bertha
- Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana later today and Wednesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible for metro New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, where a tropical storm watch is in effect.
- A coastal flood warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.
- Residents in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of that area.
- Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through July 24 along the Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast.
How strong could Tropical Storm Bertha get?
- As of 11 a.m. July 21: 60 mph
- 12 hours: 60 mph
- 24 hours: 50 mph
- 36 hours: 45 mph
- 48 hours: 40 mph
- 60 hours: 35 mph
- 72 hours: 30 mph
- 96 hours: 25 mph, post tropical
- 120 hours: dissipated
See expected impacts from Tropical Storm Bertha
- Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday.
- Storm surge: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana to the Florida/Alabama border: 2-4 feet
- Indian Pass, Florida to Aucilla River, Florida: 1-3 feet
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Alabama/Florida border: 1-3 feet
- Lake Pontchartrain: 1-3 feet
- Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana: 1-3 feet
- Rainfall: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
- Surf: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of Florida and will spread westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
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What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage to bring you the most current information you need to protect your home and family.
This story has been updated with new information.
Cheryl McCloud is a journalist for the USA TODAY Network-Florida's service journalism Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at https://tallahassee.com/newsletters.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Tropical Storm Bertha changes direction as Florida starts to feel impacts
