The quarterback of a Super Bowl favorite has major hobby upside

Of the Super Bowl favorites entering the 2026 NFL season, C.J. Stroud has the lowest-valued cards of any starting quarterback across the board.

This would have been a sacrilegious statement to make during the 2023 season when Stroud exploded for over 4,000 passing yards and a 23:5 TD-to-INT ratio en route to a near-unanimous Rookie of the Year award. And the hysteria hit a fever pitch after the Texans crushed the Browns in the wildcard round of the 2023 playoffs, only to suffer a similar fate to the Ravens the ensuing week.

Where C.J. Stroud's Market is Now

It's been a tumultuous fall from grace since. The drop began with a disappointing playoff performance in 2024 and officially hit rock bottom with a four-interception debacle against the Patriots in the 2025 divisional round. That plummeted Stroud's 2023 base rookie Prizm PSA 10 to $24.50, according to Cardladder, in the carnage afterward.

There's reason to believe, however, that the 2026 version of the Houston Texans is by far the strongest since Stroud entered the league, starting first with what quite possibly could be one of the best defenses in recent memory. Last year's team allowed the fewest yards, second-fewest points, and tied for most defensive touchdowns (four) of any unit during the season. They lost one defensive starter (DT Tim Settle) and replaced him with second-round pick and unanimous All-American Kayden McDonald from Ohio State and added coverage maven Reed Blankenship to bolster a secondary already considered one of the best in the league.

The offensive line is also arguably the deepest it's been since Stroud took over under center in 2023, as the team added veteran offensive tackle Braden Smith from Indianapolis and guard Wyatt Teller from Cleveland. The team has also invested in building the trenches through the draft with back-to-back top-48 selections in recent years (OT Aireontae Ersery in 2025 and G Keylan Rutledge in 2026). Deep doesn't necessarily mean "good," and both new veterans come with their fair share of injury concerns, but it's unquestionably a better starting point than two years ago when the Pro Bowl quarterback was sacked 52 times, the second most in the league.

C.J. Stroud as a Dark-Horse MVP Candidate?

While it would aid the Stroud card market if the soon-to-be 25-year-old compiled stats similar to his rookie season, veterans of the card space know that winning football games generally is the most important barometer for an uptick in price. Early spreads are largely a crapshoot, but it's worth noting the Texans are currently favored in 13 of the 17 games at this juncture. And all it takes is a look back to last year when Sam Darnold's 2018 rookie base Prizm PSA 10 started at $35 in early September before skyrocketing to nearly $100 before the start of the postseason. That comparison isn't entirely fair given Darnold's base pop is 1,329 compared to Stroud's 7,832, and the Seahawks quarterback was a fringe dark-horse candidate, but the sentiment still remains.

With a 2026 rookie quarterback class that lacks any sort of pizazz outside of No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and the 2025 group certainly looking lackluster after one season, speculating on veterans with promise might be the move ahead of the 2026 season.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com/collectibles as The Quarterback of a Super Bowl Favorite Has Major Hobby Upside.