The Cubs need pitching: I ranked the 10 best targets they can actually get

Cubs Starting Pitcher Trade Targets — Let’s do it.

The Cubs have kicked off the second half of the season by winning three of their first five games, bringing them to 13 games over .500 with 12 days to go before the trade deadline. On the bright side, they have a commanding lead in the NL Wild Card race, especially considering their tie-breaker over the Phillies, which means they should be notable buyers at the deadline.

On the bleaker side, they still trail the Brewers, who are effectively tied for the best record in baseball, by 6.0 games in the NL Central. And because of that, by Jed Hoyer’s own admission, the Cubs will probably not be among the most aggressive buyers at the deadline, at least in terms of rentals.

With that said, I would like to rank 10 potential starting pitcher trade targets among the more reasonable options, to get a better sense of who is out there and how we’d feel about acquiring that player in particular.

Obviously, the Cubs will/should also pursue relievers, but we’ll save that conversation for another day.

One set of notes up-front identifying which guys I excluded from this list (and why), in no particular order.

・Logan Webb, RHP (Giants) – While I’d love to add Logan Webb, whose particular style and control fits perfectly into this Cubs team now and the future, the Giants appear to be particularly reluctant to move him. If he were to become available (at any realistic level), I suspect the Cubs would be near the front of the line.

・Tarik Skubal, LHP (Tigers) – Tarik Skubal might be the best pitcher on the planet, and he is definitely available at the deadline. If the Cubs were in a reasonably enough position to compete for one of the first-round byes, I’d say they might be right there ready to make their pitch. But because they are not, I do not find the Cubs to be a particularly likely landing spot for Skubal.

・Sandy Alcantara, RHP (Marlins) – We know the Cubs like Sandy Alcantara and that they do have a recent track record of working with the Marlins on deals (Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera). Unfortunately, it sounds like the Marlins are planning to hang onto Alcantara, who comes with another year of team control.

・Sonny Gray, RHP (Red Sox) – Sonny Gray was looking like a great potential option for the Cubs at the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline, but then Boston went and ripped off a 14-game winning streak, blowing up their plans to sell him (and Aroldis Chapman) over the next two weeks. So, again, good target, good, reasonable option among the rentals, but not likely to be moved at this moment in time.

・Michael King, RHP (Padres) – Michael King is another guy the Cubs have liked in the past, but his contract makes him effectively untradable. No, really: King has not one, but two player options for 2027 ($28M) and 2028 ($30M). So it’s not just the overall price, it’s the fact that he holds all the cards. That just ain’t gonna happen, as they say.

Okay, now that we’ve got those guys out of the way, here’s a look at the ten best starting pitcher trade targets for the Chicago Cubs between now and the deadline.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Trade Targets

10. Robbie Ray, LHP – Giants (Rental)

Robbie Ray, 34, is a 2x All-Star and a former AL Cy Young Award-winning pitcher. And in terms of his results, he’s not doing half-bad this year: 3.33 ERA over 110.2 IP.

However, he falls in at the back end of this list for a few specific reasons:

First, he’s half-a-decade removed from his Cy Young season. That version of Robbie Ray is simply not the guy you’re getting right now, and I think it’s worth remembering that because he absolutely is a “name” player otherwise. And although he was an All-Star last year, that was almost entirely on the strength of his first half (2.65 ERA, 3.54 FIP), because what happened after the All-Star break was extremely not good (5.54 ERA, 4.67 FIP).

Second, while his results this season are strong (3.33 ERA over 110.2 IP), the peripherals are not. He’s got a 4.59 FIP and 4.63 xFIP because his strikeout rate is too low, his walk rate is too high, and opposing batters are barreling him up too often. He’s also making $25M this year.

I think he’d be a fine low-cost target, but he doesn’t move the needle too much as is.

9. Michael Wacha, RHP – Royals (Controllable)

If you haven’t been keeping tabs, you probably think I’m crazy. The Cubs have OWNED Michael Wacha for most of his career (6.33 ERA over 22 starts), and acquiring him at age-35 seems like an odd choice.

But he actually has been pretty good for going on five years now, though he is usually outperforming his peripherals:

・2022 (127.1 IP): 3.32 ERA, 4.14 FIP

・2023 (134.1 IP): 3.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP

・2024 (166.2 IP): 3.35 ERA, 3.65 FIP

・2025 (172.2 IP): 3.86 ERA, 3.66 FIP

・2026 (125.1 IP): 3.66 ERA, 4.03 FIP

But there’s a little more to this story. For one, Wacha is under contract for 2027 ($14M) and 2028 ($14M club option). If you believed in his ability to keep up this level of production, that’s pretty valuable, particularly for the Cubs who should be looking for controllable pitching at the deadline.

I don’t know that I do (expect him to keep that up, however). And from the sounds of it, the Royals are keeping a very high price on acquiring him. For those two reasons, Michael Wacha is nearer the bottom of these rankings than the top.

8. Foster Griffin, LHP – Nationals (Rental)

Foster Griffin has exploded back onto the scene with the Nationals this season, his first year back in the big leagues after spending time in the NPB (Japan). The Nats signed Griffin to just a one-year, $5.5M deal, and he rewarded them with an All-Star first half, featuring a 2.68 ERA (3.96 FIP) over 20 starts and 117.1 IP.

Generally speaking, his strikeout and walk rates are both solidly better than average, and the average exit velocity is low enough too. He’s also generating groundballs. Oh, and he’s finished at least 7.0 full innings in four of his last five starts. He’s a little under-the-radar, but he’d be a great, potentially lower-cost addition for the Cubs at the deadline.

Plus, he’s a lefty that does not throw hard … Of course the Cubs are going to want him.

7. Freddy Peralta, RHP – Mets (Rental)

I admit that this is where I am probably being too stubborn, perhaps ranking Peralta higher than he should be. But at just 30 years old and with SO MANY years of success in the NL Central, I just can’t abandon the idea that his bad results are all because of the Mets.

2026 Stats: 5.01 ERA (3.85 xERA, 4.51 FIP)

Peralta is another rental, but he’s a potential Cubs free agent target this winter. Likewise, Craig Counsell has a lot of experience with Peralta during their shared time in Milwaukee. And finally, the Cubs and Mets have had no trouble getting together on some trades over the last few years, including, most recently, the trade for David Peterson.

Because his velocity is fine and his command hasn’t really gotten worse, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs feel as though they can get more out of him right away. Maybe the price will even be appropriately depressed because of how sideways things have gone in New York this year.

I don’t know. Like I said, I might just be holding onto a version of Peralta that’s no longer around. But again, he’s only 30, was excellent last season (2.70 ERA, 3.6 fWAR), and the Mets are just awful in every way.

6. Kevin Gausman, RHP – Blue Jays (Rental)

I actually think Kevin Gausman might be a sneaky great trade target for the Chicago Cubs at this coming deadline. He is a rental, so park that in your mind, but maybe the Cubs can be the team to bank on his still excellent peripherals (3.67 FIP, 23.8 K%, 6.9 BB%) being a better predictor of future success than his iffy results: 4.51 ERA.

For what it’s worth, most of his data actually looks fairly similar to his 4.1 fWAR 2025 season. And as a former ace, I do like the idea of adding Gausman and assuming he can be a playoff-caliber starter for the Cubs this season.

At this point, the Blue Jays are all but assured to sell, and Gausman could be one of their more attractive trade chips. He’ll also be owed just about $6.7M from the deadline on. I originally had him behind Peralta and Griffin, but I adjusted last minute. I think he’s a great target.

5. Jose Soriano, RHP – Angels (Controllable)

Jose Soriano, 27, is a young, cost-controlled (2.5 years remaining), hard-throwing (97-98 MPH) right-hander with a solid strikeout rate (24.8 K%) and a metric ton of groundballs (52.1% this year, 59.3% for his career).

There’s honestly not much more you need to know than that. The Cubs are lacking in controllable starters, especially guys who throw hard, meaning Soriano could fulfill a need both now and in the future. And with their best-in-the-biz defense, the Cubs are an especially good fit for any guy with a solid groundball rate.

The biggest question, however, is if the Angels are actually going to trade him. He’s a valuable asset, but he’s also young enough and controllable enough to build around. And any acquiring team would undoubtedly have to pay for a little bit of the unrealized upside that’s lurking (not unlike the Cubs’ move for Edward Cabrera).

Plus, the Angels have an interim GM at the moment, making significant, long-term moves like this even less likely. In other words, he was a borderline “exclusion” from these rankings, but his consistent presence in most trade rumors across the industry keeps him in play for now.

4. Casey Mize, RHP – Tigers (Rental)

Casey Mize, 29, is another rental starter on the younger end of the spectrum, and he’s having a very good year for the Tigers: 2.79 ERA (2.62 FIP) over 15 starts.

The rub here is that he’s already taken two trips to the Injured List for a strained groin, putting into question his durability the rest of the way. The Cubs have already gambled a lot on injured pitchers, and for the most part, it has not worked out well for them. He’s also been unable to pitch particularly deep into most games, which is not a deal breaker, but does give some key context to the otherwise great results and peripherals.

All risks aside, we’re talking about a 29-year-old with excellent strikeout (25.6%) and walk (5.9%) numbers, and a tiny barrel rate allowed (6.4%). If the Cubs head into August 4 with Mize on the roster, I’ll be happy.

3. Clay Holmes, RHP – Mets (Rental)

In terms of (likely) rental starting pitchers, few are more desirable for the Cubs than Clay Holmes. I say “likely,” by the way, because he technically does have a player option for next season, one in which he’s likely to decline.

However, that does negatively impact his trade value, because if he does get hurt, he’ll accept it. Player options are always “bad” things for the team.

And to that end, Holmes is currently still on the Injured List with a fractured leg (suffered on a comebacker on May 15), though he is scheduled to make his first rehab start at Triple-A this Thursday.

The reason he’s so attractive for the Cubs really comes down to a familiar theme: He’s just a groundball MACHINE.

For his career, Holmes has a 62% groundball rate, which is absolutely elite. This season, it’s still a well-above-average 56%.

But what will he be when he comes back? Is he going to throw as hard and be as effective as ever? I don’t think we can really say for certain, and the Mets are probably sprinting to get him back on a big league mound as soon as possible to demonstrate that he is his usual self.

For what it’s worth, Holmes was also great last season, his first as a starter (he’s a converted reliever), finishing with a 3.53 ERA over 165.2 IP.

I’d like the Cubs to get him, but the current injury and the coming player option definitely make things tricky. On the other hand, the Mets are almost certainly going to trade him, even though there have been some rumors about a pre-deadline extension.

2. Reid Detmers, LHP – Angels (Controllable)

Another young, cost-controlled Angels starter with better peripherals than results, but boy … I’d love me some Reid Detmers.

The Angels’ 27-year-old lefty won’t be a free agent until after the 2028 season, meaning he can be a key cog for this Cubs window now and in the future.

And while you might be inclined to scoff at me ranking a guy second when he has a 4.16 ERA, let me just point out some of his underlying numbers:

・3.27 xERA

・3.22 FIP

・27.4 K%

・7.4 BB%

・7.5 Barrel%

・37.0 hard%

That said, he has had a frustrating recent five-start run, during which he’s got a 5.74 ERA over 26.2 IP. Before that, though, he had a 3.68 ERA (2.82 FIP) with 100 strikeouts in 15 starts and 88.0 IP.

I’d be very excited about the present and the future if the Cubs were able to snag Detmers. But once again, I should remind you that the Angels’ deadline plans, particularly for their controllable guys, are very murky with that interim GM. Often, those types of executives try not to make long-term decisions that someone else will have to live with.

1. Joe Ryan, RHP – Twins (Controllable)

Joe Ryan is the No.1 most attractive trade target for the Cubs among their realistic possibilities. Frankly, he’s up there just among all starting pitchers, and they had eyes on him last deadline, too.

At 30 years old and with another year of team control, he fits the “now and future” mold of the most attractive trade targets, and he’s been remarkably consistent over the past three seasons:

・2024: 3.60 ERA (3.44 FIP)

・2025: 3.42 ERA (3.74 FIP)

・2026: 3.38 ERA (3.42 FIP)

He’s also carrying a career strikeout rate of 27.6% (which he is beating this season), and the same is true of his career 5.6% walk rate (5.3% this season).

The barrel rate is a little high, and he doesn’t generate a lot of groundballs, but that’s not really his game. And in any case, “his game” is working just fine for him overall.

If the Cubs are going to go big on a starter this year, I’d prefer it to be for someone with at least a year of control beyond this one. And in that market, Joe Ryan is the closest thing to a sure-bet as you’ll probably get.

Conclusion

A couple of notes here just to wrap:

(1) I’ve said it a bunch, but it bears repeating: At the end of the year, the Cubs rotation is going to lose Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, David Peterson, and potentially Colin Rea, depending on what they do with his club option. When you throw in the absence of Cade Horton for most, if not all, of next year plus the uncertainty around Ben Brown and Justin Steele, I just cannot overstate how badly they need pitching in 2027. They won’t be able to accomplish it all in the offseason, so doing some of their buying now makes sense. That’s why I lean so heavily on the controllable guys.

(2) The groundball angle is real – the Cubs defense, particularly in the infield, is so exceptionally good at turning groundballs into outs. It’s the reason they targeted David Peterson, and it is seemingly the ethos of the entire organization’s pitching philosophy. So that’s why I also value high groundball rates among the potential options above.