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Options traders are betting Tesla could see its biggest post-earnings move in a year when the electric auto giant reports on Wednesday after the bell.
Current prices for at-the-money puts and calls are implying a 5.76% move, which is the largest implied move since traders priced in a 6% swing back in October 2025. It would be the largest realized move since last July. On Tuesday, options flow leaned bullish, with traders having bought 244,000 calls compared to 116,000 puts through midday, while calls accounted for more than two-thirds of total premium traded.
The top three most active contracts by volume in Tesla were calls, with the most premium being spent by traders in the 380-calls expiring Friday. Traders spent more than $15 million on those nearly at-the-money calls, which commanded around $11 per contract, meaning they would require a 3% move higher by the end of the week to become profitable.
While options traders are expecting a large move, Tesla's stock has historically experienced muted moves on earnings days. In fact, over the past four quarters, the stock has experienced a median move of just 3.5%, according to CBOE data.
Also, on the radar for Musk-centric traders will be SpaceX's first earnings report since last month's initial public offering. That potential wildcard for the market will occur on Aug. 4. The options market is currently implying a 12% move in either direction.
"If you want to be aggressive you could argue [Tesla is] hanging on support and take the long side, which I am longer term, but it's more or less been rangebound since the start of the year," Gianni Di Poce, instructor at TheoTrade, said by phone. "The whole SpaceX thing is weighing on it, people are trying to figure out which to own and if they're going to merge."
Following its historic June IPO, SpaceX shares raced toward a $2 trillion valuation. But the stock has since fallen sharply, and the company's valuation now stands just under $1.7 trillion, just ahead of Tesla's $1.4 trillion.
CNBC's Oliver Renick contributed reporting.
