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Some voters who backed President Donald Trump in the 2024 election believe gas would have been cheaper if former Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, had won, according to a new poll ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when the economy will be a key focus.
According to the Politico poll released on Wednesday, voters who cast their ballots for Trump in the most recent election said gas prices “have gone up more under Donald Trump than they would have under a Democratic president.” Thirty-five percent said gas prices would have gone up the same amount under a Democrat, while only 34 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters believe gas prices would have gone up more under a Democratic administration.
The Iran war has put pressure on the global oil supply, resulting in higher prices at the pump across the globe. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for oil, caused prices to soar since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran in February.
Although prices fell during the ceasefire of the conflict, they have begun to rise again amid renewed fighting in recent weeks.
High gas prices carry political risk for Trump, who made tackling inflation a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign and attacked former President Joe Biden, a Democrat, over high prices in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Frustrations over the economy were viewed as a major force that propelled Trump back to the Oval Office. Nearly two years later, polls suggest Americans are unhappy with the state of the economy and disapprove of the president’s handling of it.
Democrats have made opposition to the war, as well as highlighting its impact on gas prices, central to their message for the midterms, when they are hoping to retake control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told Newsweek that Trump “remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families.”
“As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels,” Rogers said.
Americans Blame High Gas Prices on Iran War
Overall, a plurality of 42 percent of respondents said gas prices have gone up more than they would have if Harris won, while only 18 percent said they believed gas prices would have gone up more under a Democratic administration.
The poll also asked respondents about the reasons they believe gas prices have risen.
Most Americans—63 percent—said the Iran war is a factor in why gas prices have risen. Forty percent said Trump’s tariffs have played a role, while 38 percent said his “poor handling of the economy” was to blame. Twenty-three percent pointed to supply chain disruptions while 21 percent blamed high gas prices on a lack of domestic oil production.
The online poll, conducted by Politico and Public First, surveyed 2,061 adults from July 13-15, 2026; Politico reported that the survey began on July 12.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai has previously said Trump has “always been clear about short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, disruptions that the Administration has been diligently working to mitigate.”
The Iran war began on February 28, paused during a brief ceasefire starting around April 7-8 before hostilities resumed earlier in July.
Americans Frustrated With Gas Prices, Economy Amid Iran War: Polls
Other recent polls also show that Americans are unhappy with the state of the economy. A poll from The Washington Post and Ipsos found that only 33 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy—the lowest point in any surveys from the pollster.
Only 39 percent of respondents said they were confident negotiations to end the war would bring gas prices down, while 59 percent said they were not confident in that.
The poll surveyed 2,648 adults from July 8-13, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
A CBS News/YouGov poll measuring Americans’ attitudes toward the Iran war found that 23 percent viewed gas prices as a “financial hardship” while an additional 30 percent said it has been “difficult.” Twenty-nine percent described gas prices as an “inconvenience,” while only 7 percent said their finances had not been impacted by the rising gas prices.
It found that 7 percent of Americans view the economy as “very good,” while 24 percent say it is “fairly good.” Thirty-three percent said it is “fairly bad,” while 30 percent described the condition of the economy as “very bad.”
It surveyed 2,519 adults from June 17-19, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday that Americans “don’t want high gasoline prices, but they’re not against the war.”
The Ipsos poll found that 68 percent of Americans do not believe the war is worth fighting, while YouGov/CBS News found that 78 percent of Americans want the war to end now.
How Much Does a Gallon of Gas Cost?
Nationwide, gas prices averaged $4.060 per gallon on Wednesday, up from $4.019 on Tuesday and $3.890 one week earlier, according to AAA. Gas cost $3.929 per gallon one month earlier and $3.145 one year earlier.
That marks a 29 percent increase in gas prices from one year ago.
California saw the highest prices with an average of $5.545 per gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA. Mississippi saw the lowest prices at $3.622 per gallon.
GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan wrote in an X post Wednesday that gas prices could continue rising in the coming weeks.
“Crude oil prices continue to advance as [Houthis] threaten Saudi oil route through Bab al-Mandab Strait, WTI up >3% to $87, Brent up 3.5% to $94, RBOB up 7c/gal. based on where things stand now, national average could rise to $4.15-$4.25/gal in the next couple weeks,” he wrote.
How the Iran War Is Driving Up Gas Prices
The Iran war has been a major strain on the global oil supply, with disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz leading to a spike in prices.
The strait lies between Iran to the north and Oman to the south, with shipping lanes passing through the territorial waters of both countries, but the strait is governed by international maritime law. Iran exerts significant influence because of its long northern coastline and control of nearby islands that overlook the narrow strait, while Oman oversees the southern side.
The waterway is also a critical route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), carrying about 20 percent of global LNG trade, largely from Qatar. Most of the oil shipped through the strait is bound for Asian markets, making disruptions especially significant for global energy prices.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jenni Fink and Sam Wilson.
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