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Ukraine’s Strikes Are Threatening Russia’s Harvest: Russia’s fuel crisis is bad enough. For civilians, it makes something as simple as filling up a car almost impossible in some parts of the country, while also sending food and goods prices skyrocketing. For President Vladimir Putin, it raises domestic pressure and the political cost of continuing the war against Ukraine.
But there’s another problem brewing for Russia, and without action taken to prevent continued Ukrainian long-range strikes, it is about to cause historic problems for the country. Fuel shortages are rocking Russia just as farmers across the southern regions of the country prepare for harvest, with those farmers warning that diesel shortages and rising fuel prices are making it extremely difficult to harvest crops and transport grain. Farmers are even warning that it will become increasingly difficult to prepare winter feed for livestock, which will cause a knock-on effect for the country’s livestock farmers.
It’s good news for Ukraine in that, in theory, it should force the Russian president to reconsider the war and come back to the negotiating table. It’s bad news, however, for the Russian people; Putin, after all, seems to be intent on sustaining the conflict and pushing on for as long as humanly possible.
As Moscow diverts fuel supplies to major cities and imports gasoline from India and Belarus, and prioritizes deliveries to its capital city while leaving rural regions behind, the country is set to experience serious shortages during one of the busiest periods of the agricultural calendar.
Russian Farmers Warn Harvest Is Under Threat
A recent Reuters report offered insight into how Russian farmers are feeling ahead of harvest season. Farmer Vladimir Fedorchenko and his wife described how the fuel shortage is causing both direct and indirect damage to their business, noting that their workers are spending hours just to fill up with enough fuel to reach them.
“They’re queueing for half a day,” they said.
His wife, Lyubov Fedorchenko, who manages the family farm, also said that the harvest itself looks promising after last year’s poor growing season, but farmers fear being unable to turn that harvest into income.
“Everything is at a standstill. Barley – on halt. Wheat – on halt,” she told Reuters. “And we desperately need money now. We need to sell (the harvest) and buy diesel fuel, fertilizer.”
Without that critical income, she said, investments in new machinery have stopped as farms struggle to maintain cash flow.
Also speaking to Reuters, agricultural consultancy SovEcon warned that if disruptions in the Sea of Azov continue, Russia could find itself exporting between five and ten million fewer tons of wheat than expected this season – a significant figure for the world’s leading wheat exporter.
Rural Russia Depends On Fuel
For rural Russia, where towns are far apart, and even a store may be miles away, the fuel shortages prevent people from living their everyday lives. The problem is affecting more than just farms; it is affecting the rural communities that surround them.
Reporting from the Novgorod region, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty cited villagers who were warning that new restrictions on filling portable fuel cans are making it difficult for rural villagers to live. Aleksandr Vasilyev told the outlet that tractor operators, who often work miles away from the nearest filling station, are left unable to operate their equipment.
“How am I supposed to fill up my tractor out in the fields?” Vasilyev said. “Am I supposed to drive it several kilometers to fill it up? And if I can’t gas up my tractor, then accordingly I — or more precisely my cows — won’t have any food for the winter.”
A woman also expressed her discontent, describing the situation as “laughable.”
“And what are you left with? And what if there’s no gas there the next time you drive? You just leave your car there?” she said.
For rural communities, it also has a very specific impact: it will hurt the summer haymaking process across the rural regions of the country. Farmers only have a limited window to cut and store hay before winter arrives, when livestock rely almost entirely on those reserves. Other villages also described how fuel would once provide backup electricity via generators during power outages, and how chainsaws used to collect winter firewood may also become inoperable as a result of the shortages. Fuel drives rural Russian life, and with no immediate solution to the problem, Russia is risking a total collapse of its economy, starting with the rural heartlands on which it is based.
Russia Focuses On Repairs – But What Comes Next?
Ukraine’s latest strikes suggest there is no real likelihood of the campaign slowing down soon. After drones damaged both primary processing units at Moscow’s largest refinery in separate attacks on June 16 and June 18, the facility is now expected to undergo at least six months of repairs, leaving one of the capital’s key fuel suppliers largely offline through the end of the year.
The same story is unfolding throughout the rest of the country, and while Russia continues to make repairs at pace, the fact that Ukraine is continuing these strikes suggests that Moscow either has a plan to make the assaults stop, or is simply content with repairing facilities as they break. The latter of those two strategies, however, leaves the country hugely vulnerable – and could risk an economic crisis so bad it will end Putin’s presidency.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
