SerpApi.Org
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Polls told FNC's Trace Gallagher Tuesday night that he doubts predictions of a Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms, arguing that how voters perceive the state of the economy closer to election day will determine which party wins the majorities.
"Keep an eye on how much these tax cuts affect everything," Cahaly concluded. "I think they will be the biggest impactors before it's all said and done."
TRACE GALLAGHER: You're casting doubt on a blue wave. I don't know, Robert. The whole thing here is-I'm going to put this up, and you tell me what's going on.The power rankings are out. We're still several months away, but, boy, oh, boy, it's fascinating. Here are the rankings: Democrats and Republicans are both at 48, if you include all the seats leaning toward each party, and then you have four toss-ups.
Move to the next one. Here are the toss-up states. We're talking about Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio. Texas is leaning right, as you can see. What's your take on these toss-up states? How do you think they come down, Robert?
ROBERT CAHALY: I think one of the most important things to look at, when you're looking at the way these things will break down, is how these states have performed traditionally.
Iowa and Ohio-I know these are candidate-driven elections-but those are going to be a tough sell because of just how strongly they have performed.
Michigan, of course, comes down to what happens in the primary. That would move that one into a definite toss-up, maybe even lean red.
But right now, what you have going on is a perspective that people have. They are looking at this election like other elections in the past, but this one will be very different.
This is going to be different because of the impact of the tax waiver on tips, overtime and Social Security. This is the most tangible tax cut so many of these voters have ever felt, and I think it's really going to affect this affordability argument.
GALLAGHER: Yes. Very quickly, I want to ask about Maine. Platner is out. What do you think of the odds of somebody coming in and beating Susan Collins?
CAHALY: I think it's going to be difficult because she has established her reputation.
If you look at the other senator from Maine, he's an independent. There has kind of been an independent, do-your-own-thing attitude about Maine.
Certainly, many times Collins has not been a solid vote for the majority, but she has delivered on issues that matter. I think she has maintained that independent streak, and I think it will serve her well in this election.
I expect her to survive this, even though it's close.
GALLAGHER: Let's go quickly to the House. Democrats are at 211. Republicans are at 208. Put this on the screen.
The Democrats lead, but the number you need for a majority is 218 here, Robert. There are 16 toss-ups.
What do you think this comes down to? Fox's power rankings make it look like it's going Democratic. Do you think it also goes Democratic, or do you think Republicans hold it?
CAHALY: I think it's possible it goes Democratic, but I do think it's dependent upon the economy.
People talk about affordability, but there are two parts. One part is how much things cost. The other part is how much money you have in your pocket.
Going back to these tax cuts, I really think you're going to be surprised because people are realizing what an impact this is having on their lives.
If Republicans campaign on, "You felt this, and it can go away. That money that you've been saving can go away," I think that's enough to move this election.
But I think it's going to be economy-driven, and we've got to get a little closer for me to tell you one side will prevail over the other.
Keep an eye on how much these tax cuts affect everything. I think they will be the biggest factors before it's all said and done.
