Putin is already testing Burnham

A cartoon this week in the Russian newspaper Izvestiya had Larry, the Downing Street cat, listening to his new housemate and thinking: “A new Prime Minister has arrived – Andy. Should I remember him or not?”

In many ways, this reflects the Kremlin’s own uncertainty over Andy Burnham’s elevation, and whether it actually changes anything as far as Russia is concerned, or if it just means a new face backing old policies.

In the lead-up to Burnham being sworn in, the Russian media – so often keen to attack what it presents as an implacably hostile British state – was surprisingly careful and polite, sticking to reporting the facts and not even going on the offensive over his statements of support for Ukraine.

Indeed, before Monday, the main story the Russian press was covering was the expectation that Burnham would give the green light to further North Sea oil and gas drilling.

In part, this reflects a genuine uncertainty as to who Burnham is, especially as Andrei Kelin, the Russian ambassador to the UK since 2019, is reportedly about to head back to Moscow.

It will be interesting to see who is chosen to replace Kelin, but in the meantime, there has been a suggestion from Russian diplomatic sources that the London embassy, which, like its British counterpart, has been shrunk by tit-for-tat expulsions, has not had the capacity to properly assess Burnham or his team.

This may help explain the lack of a clear steer for the media from the Kremlin, though Dmitri Peskov, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, has counselled against any undue optimism.

Last week, Peskov warned that it’s “unlikely that anyone on the British political scene will have a different position to [former prime minister Sir] Keir Starmer on our bilateral relations”.

There is nonetheless a quiet hope in some quarters of Moscow that a new British prime minister committed especially to a domestic agenda – and possibly more willing to buck the established Whitehall consensus – might be someone with whom they have more chance of talking. At the very least, they reason, Burnham might be forced to take a second look at the UK’s commitments to both raising its defence spending and continuing to support Ukraine at the same level.

The UK’s cumulative aid to Ukraine since 2022 has reached £25bn, but Russia’s Kommersant business newspaper noted the “clear imbalance between the detailed outline of domestic reforms and the studious avoidance of foreign policy” by Burnham and his allies.

There is hope in Russia that Burnham’s focus on domestic reforms and his inexperience in international affairs means the UK would not continue to be, in the words of one social media commentator, a “locomotive driving European Russophobia”.

The Kremlin has also denied that it was anything more than a coincidence that the Russian frigate Neustrashimy conducted live-fire training in international waters off the English south coast on Monday, just as Burnham was becoming Prime Minister.

Ministry of Defence sources, however, suggested to The i Paper that, while legal in international waters, “it was likely an early test of the new Government: would it try and sweep everything under the rug or become hysterical?”

In the last days, the Kremlin seems to have concluded that any prospect of an early shift in British policy is premature, and by Tuesday Russian media was seemingly unanimous in dismissing the chances of a thaw between the countries.

Newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta characterised Burnham as “a consistent critic of Russia, who constantly calls for the West to adopt a tougher stance on Russia”, but reserved its harshest words for the new Foreign Secretary, Ed Milliband, presenting him as an untrustworthy Russophobe.

Whatever the immediate view, Moscow does sense that there may be some benefit from a political transition within the UK, as the war in Ukraine turns increasingly against it. Burnham’s avowed desire to work more closely with Europe might someday make him, as one well-placed Russian observer told The i Paper, someone who can “create some sort of coalition of the willing for peace, not war”.

While Putin doesn’t seem to be in the mood for talks right now, there is an increasing awareness that someday there will need to be negotiations. Moscow doesn’t feel it can deal with Kyiv directly and continues to look for intermediaries.

It has essentially lost any faith in Donald Trump. If London can become a stable, if not friendly player, then this might provide some kind of a foundation. In the Russian observer’s view: “Ironically, [the UK’s] position makes it more credible in this role – no one will call it soft on Russia.”

Meanwhile, having experienced 26 years of direct and indirect rule by one man, the continuing turnover of British prime ministers is being spun by the Kremlin as evidence that the UK, a country it continues to regard as an age-old adversary, is locked in an increasing cycle of chaos and decline.

Given the churn in the UK, like the cartoon Larry the Cat, Russia’s leaders are mostly just trying to work out if Burnham will be around long enough for them to need to get to know him.