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Determining timelines and projections for baseball prospects, let alone teenage ones at that, is tricky business.
Then again, we did nail where the top three bats the Orioles selected this month would end up in their team prospect rankings with deadly accuracy – with high-school outfielder Eric Booth Jr being their new No. 1 and college outfielder Ty Head cracking the 10 and high-school outfielder Kevin Roberts, Jr. basically coming in at 15 in Baseball America’s new rankings.
So we’ve got that going for us.
But seriously we do still keep a close eye on the farm system and go to games and watch them on MILB TV and have had a strong grip on what’s real and what’s fugazi with this entire “pipeline” of talent as failing baseball czar Mike Elias would put it. So figuring out where these kids would immediately slot in wasn’t that difficult.
Try to tell you when they will land in MLB is quite tougher. And, at this point, with Elias’s track record, the more salient question is if they will reach that level. Especially when he tries to fix toolsy and athletic young outfielders with some swing plane issues or too many holes in his swing. Yikes.
We’re going to leave pitchers out of this assignment because Elias basically has developed one homegrown starter in eight years – Brandon Young – and he was un-drafted. So, yeah. Let’s focus on the first three position players.
Booth – Arrival Sept 2029
Welp, he doesn’t have much in front of him on the depth chart in centerfield at any level of the org, so that helps the cause. But he’s also quite young and quite raw and it’s not like he was facing California high school competition or Florida high school competition. We’re talking Mississippi.
He would have been a perfect kid to start in the New York-Penn League if greedy billionaires hadn’t killed the rookie league level off. Maybe he spends time in the complex league – like a fair amount – and gets bled into Delmarva for a little taste ahead of next year.
I don’t see him flying through levels, or, frankly, the Orioles doing that sort of thing as haphazardly as Elias has (whether he stays or is gone). And taking someone this far off that high begs you to take your time. We’re talking a year at a level at least to start. If he only needed one full year between Low-A and Hi-A in 2027, that would be quite a headstart.
Depending on what the arbitration rules are in the new CBA and how much this team is pushing to contend in 2029, maybe that summer he starts to build a late case. I certainly hope rosters can expand a bit more in the future than they can now (but not as crazy as it used to be!), which would benefit someone like Booth.
Head – Late Summer 2028
His glove should carry him. Can he hit even a ‘lil bit and just get on base? Cuz if so, he’s going to pass Enrique Bradfield Jr. by 2028 I figure. For all of their pompous rhetoric early in this rebuild, Elias has been uniquely awful at producing high OBP hitters anywhere on his roster. That’s been this kid’s superpower with a metal bat.
If Head can do that with the wood variety, and he starts this year in Frederick (given Vance Honeycutt’s issues he should) and gets to Chesapeake early next season, and maybe there isn’t any MLB ball in 2027 and the player development apparatus is totally fixed on the minors and he’s in AA then …
Well, I’m dreaming here but they are going to want one of these CF they’ve drafted to actually reach the Majors and stick there. Colton Cowser can’t hit and can’t get on base. If Head can, maybe he can start making a case two years from now.
Roberts – Sometime In 2030, But Maybe Never
This is going to be a real project and this front office can’t handle alleged “sure things” let alone someone like Roberts. He also played prep ball in Mississippi and he is only 17 and is going to need nurturing and development and a deft touch.
Man, I really hope we have a real GM in this town soon and these charlatans are gone. It would really benefit this young man.
He’s going to need a lot of time at each level and some major adjustments to his entire profile along the way. Elite athleticism for sure, but this is a sport of failure and trial-and-error process, and this is a lottery ticket selection.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/mlb/orioles/onsi as Projecting How Long Will It Take the Baltimore Orioles Top Draft Picks to Reach the Majors.
