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A tropical depression brewing in the Gulf could become Tropical Storm Bertha this week, as forecasters watch whether it moves toward Louisiana or shifts west enough to bring stronger impacts to Texas.
As of Monday, July 20, Tropical Depression 2 was forming near Florida's Gulf Coast. Forecast models currently favor a northwest track toward Louisiana, but AccuWeather says the Texas coast remains at risk for possible impacts.
According to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, that could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to South Central Texas, including Texas Hill Country towns still rebuilding after devastating floods and even a tornado the week before. It would also mean about 3 to 4 inches of rain along most of the Texas coastline.
Forecasters are also watching whether competing steering winds could push the system farther west toward Texas. That is not the preferred outcome as of Monday afternoon, but DaSilva said it remains possible and could change the forecast for Texans currently seeing lower rain chances.
"We're going to just have to monitor things over the next day or two," DaSilva told MySA. "I don't want anybody along the Texas coast to let their guard down because they are still very much in play for some impacts, and we want people to follow the forecast closely."
Warm Gulf waters could help the system strengthen, even though El Niño can increase wind shear that limits Atlantic hurricane activity overall. Forecasters are still waiting for the track and intensity to become clearer for people in Texas, including those in the Hill Country.
Whether the tropical depression reaches the Texas coast or intensifies enough to become a hurricane likely won't be clear for another couple of days, forecasters said. The National Weather Service expects the system to become a named tropical storm by Tuesday.
Widespread flooding is not currently forecast in Texas, DaSilva said, and a week of sunshine between storms could help dry out soaked ground. Still, even 1 to 2 inches of rain could complicate recovery for communities rebuilding after last week's floods.
"In terms of a wall of water coming down the river, I don't think that's going to happen unless, again, we see the worst-case scenario," DaSilva said. "But people are out there – people's houses were destroyed. They're going to be outside trying to repair stuff. Any rain is not going to be helpful if that occurs."
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