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Young obese women are driving a rise in early-onset type 2 diabetes across England, research suggests.
A new study found a rise in the number of young adults developing the condition, and they tend to be fatter at the point at which they are diagnosed than older people.
The research, published in Lancet Regional Health Europe, is the first to examine trends in new cases of type 2 diabetes across the English population, broken down by age, sex and ethnicity.
Obesity is a known cause of type 2 diabetes. Long-term complications of diabetes include damage to blood vessels leading to heart disease and stroke, foot problems such as ulcers and infections, and sight problems such as diabetic retinopathy and blindness.
For the study, researchers from Imperial College London looked at data on new cases of type 2 diabetes in England from 2011 to 2024.
It showed that while the incidence of type 2 is falling in older adults, who still make up most new cases, it is increasing rapidly in people under the age of 40.
Young women in particular seem to be driving this trend, researchers said.
Across the study, the age-standardised incidence of type 2 diabetes rose 43 per cent in men and 69 per cent in women aged 20 to 29, contrasting with a decline in incidence of seven per cent in men and four per cent in women aged 60 to 79, researchers said.
Regarding the speed of change, on average the incidence rose by 2.1 per cent per year in men and 3.0 per cent year in women aged 20 to 29, compared with a decline of 1.7 per cent per year in men and 1.5 per cent per year in women aged 60 to 79.
Among all younger people, experts said the rise is occurring across all ethnicities, but is particularly noticeable in white, Asian and black women aged 20 to 29, and in white women aged 30 to 39.
Dr Shivani Misra, clinical associate professor at Imperial College London and lead author, said: “We think that the earlier onset of severe obesity in young people is increasing their type 2 diabetes risk in early life and pulling down their age at diagnosis.
“This is really worrying given the poor health outcomes from early-onset type 2 diabetes and as numbers increase, we need to think about implementing effective treatments as early as possible.”
The study also showed a big shift in average body weight at the time of diagnosis, particularly among younger people.
The increase in body mass index (BMI) over time among younger people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes was approximately double that seen in older adults.
From 2011 to 2024, the study found that BMI at diagnosis increased by about 5-7 per cent in adults under 40 compared with only a 2-3 per cent increase in adults aged 40 and over, Dr Misra said.
The average BMI at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in white British women aged 20 to 29 rose from 37.7 in 2011 to 40.7 in 2024, contrasting with a much smaller rise from 31.1 to 32.9 in women aged 60 to 79.
This suggests that successive generations of younger adults are developing type 2 diabetes at increasingly severe levels of obesity.
Asked about the impact of weight-loss drugs, such as Mounjaro, Ozempic and Wegovy (GLP-1s), Dr Misra told PA: “GLP-1 medications are one component of tackling rising type 2 diabetes in young adults and… type 2 diabetes guidelines this year now recommend early GLP-1 treatment for young adults with type 2 diabetes.
“There is still insufficient research on whether using GLP-1 drugs at scale in adolescents and young adults with obesity can sustainably prevent type 2 diabetes or indeed, what would happen after treatment stops.
“Their impact should be tracked carefully alongside prevention policies that continue to address the wider environmental and societal factors driving obesity from an increasingly young age.”
Helen Kirrane, head of policy, campaigns and mobilisation at Diabetes UK, said: “The rise in type 2 diabetes among younger adults is deeply concerning.
“Any diagnosis of type 2 diabetes is serious, but it can be more aggressive in younger people, increasing the risk of devastating complications and cutting lives short.
“Type 2 diabetes is a complex condition without a single cause. That’s why further action needs to be taken by Government, including restricting the promotion of unhealthy food and creating environments that support healthier lives.”
Dr Misra said: “There are many factors in society today that can contribute to someone developing obesity, from the widespread availability and marketing of unhealthy foods to increasingly sedentary lifestyles, and young people appear to be particularly vulnerable to today’s obesogenic environment.
“If we are serious about reducing the future burden of type 2 diabetes, we need stronger public health measures that create healthier environments and help prevent type 2 diabetes from developing in the first place.”
