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Coming off a first-round playoff exit, failing to reach the Western Conference Finals for the third straight year since winning it all in 2023, the Denver Nuggets had high expectations for the 2026 offseason. Losing in the first round in Nikola Jokic's prime should've been an indicator that this team needed some work, but the front office has stayed quiet this summer.
Heading into next season, they might pay for it. Despite dealing with a slew of injuries last season, with prominent extended absences for Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Christian Braun, and Peyton Watson, the Nuggets finished with a 54-28 record and in third place in the West. Still, they are expected to decline next season.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Nuggets' over/under win total for next season set at just 49.5, giving them +100 odds to reach the 50-win mark. Even though they had an injury-filled 2025-26 campaign, the Nuggets are still projected to decline next season, largely because of a disappointing summer.
Why would the Nuggets decline?
After all their injury problems last season, it feels like a given that the Nuggets would improve in 2026-27. As long as the Nuggets stay healthier than they did last season, which will not be hard to do, they should have much more cohesion and consistency to help them grab at least 55 wins.
However, with the health part of the equation out the window, since that is impossible to predict, what are some reasons the Nuggets could decline next season? The most notable issue is Denver's current roster.
Sure, the Nuggets are expected to run it back with the same starting lineup, which had an impressive +12.9 net rating in just 360 minutes together, but their bench is concerning. As it stands, with Denver's current 12-man roster, the bench unit consists of Tyus Jones, Julian Strawther, Alpha Diallo, Trevon Brazile, Zeke Nnaji, Marvin Bagley III, and DaRon Holmes.
If the Nuggets go into the 2026-27 season without any bench improvements, there will be serious problems. Granted, we are still waiting for the franchise to make decisions with restricted free agents Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones, with some more guard depth likely coming in as well, but their current look raises reasonable concern.
Assuming the Nuggets ultimately fix their depth issues before the season starts, another issue could simply be individual regression. Will Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray both have career years again? Will injuries impact Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun's performance again? Will Cameron Johnson shoot a career-best 43% from beyond the arc again?
If it weren't for injuries last season, the stars would have aligned for the Nuggets to win 60 or more games, and it is hard to say everything will click for them again. After the season, Nuggets executive Josh Kronke claimed that the group was capable of winning 60-65 games if it were not for injuries.
There is obviously hope that, by running it back with the same core, they will actually reach that potential. This 49.5-win projection seems a bit disrespectful for a Nuggets team that won 54 games last season through injuries. However, at the same time, we can only hope Denver will be better than that next season because of the assumption they will have better injury luck and finish their offseason with strong moves.
Sure, we can stay optimistic that the dominoes will fall in the right direction for the Nuggets, but for now, it is hard to be too hopeful until the front office puts a bow on the 2026 offseason.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/nba/nuggets/onsi as Nuggets' 2026-27 Win Projection Proves Their Disappointing Offseason .
