Sports

NFL predictions 2026: Top 4 sleeper MVP candidates from the AFC

NFL Spin Zone · Jul 22, 2026 18:15 · 4 min read

NFL Predictions 2026: Top 4 sleeper MVP candidates from the AFC — Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix, Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Entering the 2026 NFL season, there are a handful of obvious candidates for the league MVP award, but who could be some sleeper candidates in the AFC?

The field of players for NFL MVP in 2026 might be the deepest we've seen in recent memory.

The 2026 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the best in a long time. The league is loaded with star power, quarterback play around the league is maybe the best we've seen in a decade, and there are plenty of great teams and star players poised for bounce-back years after down seasons in 2025.

It's anyone's guess as to who could challenge Matthew Stafford for the title of NFL MVP this coming season, but there are plenty of obvious candidates. So which players might not be the most obvious?

We're going to do our best to predict a handful of sleeper MVP candidates from the AFC heading into 2026, including a number of quarterbacks on the rise.

Top 4 sleeper MVP candidates for the AFC in 2026, ranked

4. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

It would require an absolutely massive leap in year two for Cam Ward to get to the point of truly contending for league MVP, but it wouldn't be an unprecedented leap, by any means.

There are plenty of examples in recent history of #1 overall picks making a big jump from year one to year two, and even though Cam Ward and the Titans aren't going to be the most watched team in the NFL this season, he could still make plenty of noise for the MVP award.

Since we're still waiting for the season to begin, hypotheticals are still on the table. Ward has a new offensive coordinator (Brian Daboll) and a number of new weapons at his disposal, including Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate. The supporting cast around him is much better, and we expect Ward to be operating with a lot more confidence as a sophomore.

If he can put up at least 30 touchdowns and lead the Titans back to the postseason, there's no reason he won't be at least in consideration.

3. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

If there was an award for the most under-appreciated player in the NFL right now, it might go to Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor has been in the NFL since 2020, but it feels like he's been around for over a decade at this point. And part of the reason for that is that Taylor is one of the NFL's great models of consistency. As consistent -- and fantastic -- as Taylor has been, he still has even a couple of outlier seasons statistically.

Just last season, he had 20 total touchdowns, including 18 on the ground, and over 1,900 yards from scrimmage. He doesn't often get talked about in the same way as other top-tier backs in the NFL do, but he's absolutely on the same playing field.

Statistically speaking, there isn't much more Taylor can do to make a case as league MVP, especially at the running back position. But if the Colts have more success as a team, Taylor might finally get the type of national recognition he deserves.

2. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

There are a lot of folks who might scoff at this idea, but there are others who recognize that Bo Nix is arguably the most clutch player in the NFL right now.

The Denver Broncos had 13 come-from-behind victories last season, the most in NFL history. They had 11 wins by one score, and Nix's heroics in the 4th quarter were a big reason for that.

Of course, part of hte discourse with Nix is that he has to be better in the first three quarters, which is a valid point. But it's also important to keep in mind that even though Nix came into the NFL as an older rookie at 24, he's still only entering his 3rd season in the league.

The Broncos got Nix a big-time weapon when they traded for Jaylen Waddle this offseason, upgrading the receiver position substantially. For a group that led the league in drops over the past two seasons combined, Waddle is going to be a huge piece for that Denver offense.

Nix has engineered 11 game-winning drives in his NFL career, and we've only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to what he can do. As one of the best dual-threats in the game, Nix is absolutely capable of putting up MVP-caliber numbers.

1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence was exceptional in the second half of the 2025 season, and might be one of the best sleeper picks for NFL MVP entering 2026.

From Weeks 10-17, Lawrence completed 62.7 percent of his throws for 2,009 yards (251.1 yards per game) with 19 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions. He also added 5 rushing touchdowns during that timeframe.

If those numbers were extrapolated over an entire season, Lawrence would have been on pace for 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns, and putting up 50 total touchdowns is always going to have you included in the NFL MVP conversation.

Especially if the Jaguars can repeat the success they had as a team, Lawrence has to be considered a viable threat for the MVP belt this year.