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Tony Sanchez is trying to put together a sustainable program at New Mexico State, but it's harder than ever with all of the turnover.
This season, though, the roster turnover might finally work in the Aggies' favor.
Can New Mexico State Get to a Bowl Game?
The success wasn't sustained from the Jerry Kill era - going 17-11 in 2022 and 2023 - but the program hasn't completely crashed under Sanchez.
It might not seem like it, but going 4-8 last season wasn't too bad for a program that won three games or fewer in 13 of the previous 17 years.
It's possible to win in Conference USA and be a high-riser with the right offense and style, and that's the hope in the second year with a new offensive system.
This year's team has several nice parts, but they all have to come together.
New Mexico State Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Tony Sanchez (3rd year: 7-17; 8th year overall: 27-57)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Be in the Conference USA title mix on the way to a bowl game/Seventh losing season in nine years
- Key Player: Trey Hedden, QB Jr. or Adam Damante, QB Jr.
- 2025 Record: 4-8
- Biggest Question: Can the offense start doing more to take over games?
New Mexico State Key 2025 Stats
- NMSU 1st Quarter Scoring: 26, NMSU 4th Quarter Scoring: 112
- Rushing Yards: Opponents 1,980, NMSU 927
- Turnovers: New Mexico State 24, Opponents 24
Offense
Offensive coordinator David Yost has to get the offense moving.
He doesn't have a ton to work with in terms of veterans, but the transfer portal will help an attack that was the worst in college football on the ground, but tried to make up for it with a big passing game.
What’s Working
Yost offenses wing it around the yard. He's been around the college football world working with various attacks and quarterback prospects - this is his eighth school as the OC - and his offense will keep on throwing.
It didn't have the right parts last year, but now, with a year to get going, and with some help from the portal, this is when it should start to work.
It might not always be dominant, but the offense will be fun to watch.
The quarterbacks are interesting. The Aggies got a good one in Trey Hedden from Furman. He's a 6-3, 225-pound accurate passer who threw for close to 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns for the Paladins.
It's an open race, though, with Adam Damante back after completing 67% of his passes in a No. 2 role.
The Aggies scored when they had a chance. The offense might not have always worked, but it was the best in Conference USA in the red zone, scoring 89% of the time. It only failed to come away with points four times.
What Needs Work
The running game. It was dead last in the nation - that's the cost of doing business in the Yost pass-focused attack.
It was partly about not being able to run it, mixed in with not handing it off enough. The Aggies got down so fast so quickly that they had to start throwing, and the ground attack was abandoned.
New Mexico State averaged just 2.6 yards per carry, finishing with just 927 yards on the year. It only hit 100 yards twice.
The offensive line might take a bit. The Aggies brought in an interesting mix of blockers to try cobbling together a front five around returning starter Mateo Rodriguez at one guard spot.
Tackle Armond Owens from Grambling can play inside or out, and Tyler Keinath (Boise State) and James Williams (UTEP) are decent guard prospects.
Can the wide receivers get going right away? TK King is a quick veteran who can handle the No. 1 role - he caught 41 passes last season - and Brodie Malone-Bradford had a few moments, but almost everyone else is new.
Lyndon Ravare made 21 grabs for Kennesaw State last season, and Devin Ellison (Washington State) and Myles Libman (Stanford) are promising.
Player to Watch
James Jones, RB Sr.
The backs aren't too bad if they get a little work. Dijon Stanley is back after finishing second on the team with 308 yards, and he can catch with 24 grabs.
But it's Jones who'll get the longest look. The Delaware State transfer has good size and can rip off yards in chunks, averaging close to ten yards per carry with 958 yards and nine scores last season.
Defense
The defense held up relatively well at times, and it did a great job of coming up with takeaways.
It didn't get enough help from the offensive side, but with several nice parts coming back in the linebacking corps and secondary, there's a shot to repeat the production of last year.
What’s Working
The turnovers come in bunches. How do you keep your team in games when the offense is struggling? You take the ball away, and New Mexico State was great at it with 24 takeaways on the year, with three or more in four games.
The Aggies took the ball away at least once in every game, and multiple times in nine of the 12 games.
The safeties in place are solid. The Aggies get back a good tackler in Nick Session, coming off a 61-tackle season with 2.5 tackles for loss.
Bernock Iya is the better playmaker when the ball is in the air, with a team-leading four picks to go along with his 53 tackles from his safety gig.
Can the linebackers hold up? Leading tackler Tory Gethers returns after a big 93-stop season with three picks and four forced fumbles.
He's got All-Conference USA upside along with running mate Sone Aupiu, a 225-pounder who finished third with 68 stops and 5.5 tackles for loss.
The problem is the depth - there isn't any unless edge rusher Vic Shaw from UTSA is great.
What Needs Work
There's little to no bulk up front. The Aggies lost top defensive tackle Ezra Christensen to Colorado, and it'll take a rotation to match his interior pass rushing presence. It doesn't help that 305-pound Ta'Avili Tuitama is off to Utah State.
290-pound Jeremiah Sandiford (Tennessee Tech), 275-pound Jordan-Lebron Downey (Livingstone), and Kaian Roberts-Day (UTSA) need to shine right away.
It's this simple - don't give up a ton of yards. There should be more help from the offense this year, but the defense still has to do its part.
The Aggies went 4-1 when giving up fewer than 400 yards, and were 0-7 when allowing more. They're 1-14 under Sanchez when giving up 400.
Find the pass rush. The coaching staff will get creative with the transfer portal parts and the linebackers to replace the lost production.
There were just 19 sacks last year, and 11 came from Christensen and end Jamall Thompson.
Player to Watch
Josiah Charles, CB Sr.
A decent starter when he got his chances last year, he's among the team's most experienced corners. He made 28 tackles with a pick and five broken up passes, and now he should find an even bigger role.
Keys to the Season
- Get steadier pop from the offense, and get it earlier in games.
- Find the pass rushers and playmakers for a defensive line rotation.
- The offensive line has to come up with the right combination out of the gate.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Trey Hedden, QB Jr.
Or Adam Damante, or both. The passing game will do the heavy lifting, and both will likely see plenty of time.
They're both capable passers, but will they get enough time to work behind the patchwork line?
Biggest Concern
Stop turning the ball over.
This is where the upgraded quarterbacks and passing game should help a bit.
The passing game will likely be more accurate, and the idea is to not have to press so much. No matter what, the turnovers have to stop after giving it up 24 times, with 16 of them interceptions.
NMSU was 0-4 when turning it over three or more times, and 4-4 when it didn't.
Biggest Game
New Mexico, September 26The Aggies need some positive momentum early on.
Getting a win over their big rival - especially with New Mexico looking like a possible Mountain West champion going into the season - could get the ball rolling before diving into the Conference USA campaign.
Transfer Portal
It's the norm now in the new college football world. The best players get snapped up to be a part of the power schools, and New Mexico State has to get creative.
But this year is different. There's a new look offense to sell, with plenty of chances to shine.
The offensive line was the biggest need, but there's enough coming in to play around with various position battles.
Best Signing
Vic Shaw, EDGE (UTSA)
Shaw's a shot at the stars if he can use his three years of experience and quickness to be the pass edge rusher the Aggies need.
He made 43 tackles with 2.5 sacks over the last two seasons, and now he'll get his chance to take over a role and make it his.
Biggest Loss
Ezra Christensen, DT (Colorado)
Coming up with great defensive tackles isn't easy for Conference USA schools, and it hurts to lose one who can get behind the line like Christensen.
The 6-2, 280-pounder will work in Deion Sanders' rotation after coming up with 42 tackles, six sacks, and 11 tackles for loss.
Other Names to Know
- Jordan-Lebron Downey, DT (Livingstone)
- Carson Su'seu'e, TE (Oklahoma State)
- Lyndon Ravare, WR (Kennesaw State)
CFN Season Prediction
It's been so hard to break back through and become a bowl team again under Tony Sanchez, but it seems like the Aggies are knocking on the door.
They just need one right tweak and break - like an upgraded offense - and another decent year from the defense to come close to getting in the bowl hunt.
The problem is how the schedule works out.
Missing Kennesaw State is great, but most of the top winnable Conference USA games are on the road, and it's asking a lot to beat Jacksonville State, FIU, Liberty, and Delaware in Las Cruces.
The Aggies will win a few of them, but not enough.
CFN Prediction: 4-8
Sam Houston, Missouri State, and Middle Tennessee are all gettable for this Aggie team, but they're all on the road.
The Aggies will get by Mercyhurst, and they'll be competitive in most games, but they'll be on the wrong side of the non-conference dates against Florida State and Hawaii on the road.
The record might not be amazing, but the Aggies are getting stronger, and they'll get closer to being a Conference USA factor.
Related: Conference USA Football 2026 Win Totals: Spring Predictions for All 10 Teams
