New life for Medina Lake: Flooding raises water level 24 feet in just three days

For much of the past decade, Medina Lake has not been in good shape, as years of drought nearly dried it up. The reservoir spent nearly four years at less than 10% capacity, and it reached an all-time record low in May 2025, when it had diminished to just 1.9% full.

But now, Medina Lake is showing signs of new life, thanks to flooding rainfall throughout the Texas Hill Country over the past week.

Across the Medina River watershed - which spans eastern Bandera and northeastern Medina counties - an average of 8 to 15 inches of rain have fallen since Sunday. Once the ground became saturated, much of that rainfall turned into runoff and rushed into the Medina River, causing water levels to surge.

On Wednesday, the Medina River crested at 13.21 feet, reaching minor flood stage. Then, after another round of even heavier rainfall on Thursday, the river crested at 16.76 feet Thursday evening, reaching moderate flood stage. Much of that floodwater eventually flowed into Medina Lake, giving the struggling reservoir a big boost to its lake levels.

New and improved lake levels

The inflow of rainwater has caused Medina Lake to rise a remarkable 24 feet over the past three days. As of 11 a.m. Friday, the reservoir now stands at a surface elevation of 1,015.57 feet above sea level, which means it is 24.1% full - the first time Medina Lake has reached at least 20% capacity since April 2022.

Over three days this week, roughly 11.8 billion gallons of water flowed into the lake. That works out to about 164 million gallons per hour.

While the turnaround has been remarkable, Medina Lake still has a long way to go. Despite rising 24 feet this week, the reservoir remains over 48 feet below its conservation pool. It hasn't been full since July 2019.

Median Lake is likely to continue rising for the next couple of days, thanks to continued strong river flow just upstream. At the Medina River near Pipe Creek, water is still flowing at more than 3,000 cubic feet per second, and heading straight into the reservoir. By the end of the weekend, Medina Lake will likely be another 3 to 5 feet higher.

Any rain coming soon?

The forecast across South Texas is expected to be mostly rain-free for the foreseeable future, allowing the region to dry out. On Saturday, an isolated shower remains possible in the Hill Country, but rain chances will be near 10% or less. On Sunday, afternoon temps will reach near 90 degrees as rain chances fall even farther.

Next week, high atmospheric pressure is expected to develop across Texas, leading to continued dry weather. At the same time, temperatures will steadily increase, reaching the mid-90s by the middle of the week before topping out in the upper 90s by next weekend. Long-range models don't show any significant rain chances over the next 10 days.

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