SerpApi.Org
As November nears, state economists are forecasting steep losses for local governments if voters approve Florida’s sweeping property tax amendment.
Cities and counties across the state could lose nearly $12 billion annually by 2031, according to a July report from the nonpartisan Revenue Estimating Conference, a panel of economists that projects the fiscal impacts of legislation. In Tampa Bay, that could mean hundreds of millions in lost property tax dollars every year.
The findings come as local leaders caution that the amendment could spell budget cuts, higher taxes and slashed services for their cities and counties.
“These are not small changes in the way we do business,” Hillsborough County Commissioner Harry Cohen said during a meeting last month. “This isn’t some carefully targeted program. This is something that will completely upend the way that governments are funded in our state.”
For months, Gov. Ron DeSantis has pushed to largely eliminate property taxes, pointing tosurging housing costs and ballooning tax rolls. The Republican-led Legislature in June passed a less expansive version of his proposal, which will appear on the ballot as a constitutional amendment in November. It requires 60% voter approval to pass.
The initiative would raise the current $50,000 homestead exemption on primary residences to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, saving Floridians thousands on their property taxes. It would also cap annual assessment increases on non-homesteaded properties from the current 10% to 5%. Floridians who own the homes they live in would still have to pay property taxes that fund schools.
The incremental increase means local governments would see steeper revenue losses over time. In Tampa Bay, the report said, cities and counties could see hits in the hundreds of millions.
Hillsborough County, which this year adopted a $12 billion budget, is projected to lose more than $260.8 million in property tax revenues in the 2028 fiscal year, $467.6 million the following year.
The figure could climb to nearly $702 million by fiscal year 2032, according to the report.
The county’s property appraiser, meanwhile, projected a $367 million annual loss when the $250,000 exemption takes effect in 2028, according to a June presentation from county staff.
Hillsborough could turn to budget cuts, new or increased taxes, hiring freezes or layoffs to compensate for that lost revenue, Chief Financial Administrator Tom Feslertold county commissioners last month.County services for parks, pets, kids and aging residents could be cut or reduced.
The county would likely shift revenue to cover core public safety services, including Fire Rescue and the Sheriff’s office. They received $1.3 billion this fiscal year — 88% of the county’s total property tax revenue.
“This is just too much,” Commissioner Chris Boles said in June. “I think we’re going to have some hard decisions going forward.”
Tampa is projected to see steep losses, too. The city could lose out on $128.5 million in property tax revenues in fiscal year 2032, according to the report.
Tampa City Council member Lynn Hurtak said city leaders are “planning for the worst” as Mayor Jane Castor prepares to present next fiscal year’s budget.
“If a project is not already in the contract phase, we’re pausing it... I don’t know if they’re going to do a full pause on hiring, but I do expect to see open seats stay open,” Hurtak told the Tampa Bay Times. “I think everything is on the table. Anybody who tells you otherwise is not honest.”
Castor said at a news conference in May that the cost of the city’s police and firefighters alone exceeds what Tampa collects in property taxes.
Pinellas County is projected to take a $153 million hit in 2027-28 and more than $318 million by fiscal year 2032, the state economists’ report read. St. Petersburg could lose up to $73.8 million annually, and Clearwater more than $28.2 million.
St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch said at a forum last month that the referendum could mean personnel cuts for parks, police and fire. Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector said in May that while he supports lessening the financial weight of property taxes, he wonders if the state could shift the burden onto tourists by increasing the sales tax.
“Folks welcome real property tax relief,” Rector said. “But not at the expense of our quality of life.”
A University of North Florida poll of 848 likely midterm voters, released on Monday, found that the fate of the proposed amendment could come down to how it is framed to voters.
When respondents were told the initiative would require local governments to use property tax dollars only for core public services, 61% expressed support and 32% were opposed.
But when respondents read that the amendment would create an $11.8 billion shortfall for local governments, overall support fell to 45%, with 47% opposed.
“If this passes,” Hurtak said, “it’s going to be very narrow. Very close.”
