SerpApi.Org
On the face of it, the Belgian Grand Prix was a messy weekend from Lewis Hamilton, arguably his worst so far this season.
He crashed in final practice session and did well to make it through to qualifying. He qualified and finished behind Charles Leclerc, his Ferrari team-mate, for the second weekend in succession. In the grand prix he was penalised five seconds for a crash with George Russell and later collided with a mechanic during his pit stop.
Yet he comes out of it second in the championship as Kimi Antonelli’s closest challenger, trailing by 45 points compared with Russell’s 50. Given Russell’s ongoing struggles and forlorn demeanour, the question must be asked: is Hamilton the biggest threat to Antonelli?
That we can even seriously ask this question, whatever happens in the remaining 12 races, represents a huge turnaround for the seven-time champion. This weekend’s race is at the Hungaroring, which was the scene of Hamilton’s lowest point of a painful first season at Ferrari and arguably his nadir of nearly two decades in F1.
After qualifying 12th, as team-mate Leclerc took pole, he called himself useless and said that Ferrari should find another driver to replace him. After finishing 12th on Sunday, his demeanour and body language were so despondent that there were doubts whether he would return after the summer break.
Never before had he looked so bereft, even after his crushing defeat in the 2021 finale at Abu Dhabi. The questions about Hamilton’s abilities flew around the paddock. Did Hamilton still have “it”? Was he a busted flush? Might he not see out the end of his contract with Ferrari and quit in frustration at how far he had fallen?
In the 12 months since, Hamilton has answered those questions emphatically. A first victory for the Scuderia in Barcelona has been the peak of his resurgence. Whatever happens from here, the old Hamilton is not lurking far from the surface.
Yet does Hamilton find himself in this position purely because of the struggles of Russell? Their stories contrast in many ways, but Hamilton may be able to sympathise with his former team-mate’s woes. Unlike Hamilton, Russell did not walk into a competitive, race-winning car in his debut season in F1. Instead he spent three years at a painfully uncompetitive Williams, scoring a grand total of 16 points across 59 races – with most of those coming from a second place in a farcical “race” in Belgium in 2021.
The year he was promoted to Mercedes alongside Hamilton in 2022 was the first season the Silver Arrows failed to win the championship – or even contend for it – since 2013. Russell picked up five victories and plenty of podiums between 2022 and 2025, but it was not until the start of this year that Mercedes were back in title contention. Nearly halfway through the season, Russell is 50 points behind his much younger, more inexperienced team-mate, who has been the faster and more consistent driver. All hope is not yet lost for the Briton, but it is in short supply.
Whether Hamilton beats Russell depends partly on whether Russell can end his problems and find form. The Mercedes is still the fastest car, after all. Whether Hamilton can truly fight for the championship depends on what Ferrari can give him. So far the progression from the Scuderia is promising, if not rapid. In the last six races, they have finished first or second five times, including victories in Spain for Hamilton and at Silverstone for Leclerc. They have generally been Mercedes’s closest challengers and appear to be slicker operationally than last season. The gap to Mercedes is there, but it is not enormous.
Silverstone and Spa were supposed to be two tracks that Ferrari struggled at because of the demands placed on the electrical part of the power unit. The Mercedes is the class of the field – or at least is supposed to – on that front, but Ferrari’s strengths have come from the aerodynamic efficiency of their car. In other words, it is a quick car in the corners. Yet they won at Silverstone and at least provided some resistance at Spa, even though qualifying was a disappointment.
Hungary is less power-sensitive as it has just one straight of any reasonable length with the rest of the track essentially a long sequence of corners. It should provide one of Ferrari’s best opportunities for victory in 2026. It is also a track that Hamilton has performed exceptionally well at – last year’s woes excluded – over his career with eight victories. His nine at Silverstone is the one track he is more successful at.
One problem Hamilton has is that Leclerc appears to have finally overcome the issues that were costing him so much time and causing a variety of mistakes. In the five races between Japan and Great Britain, Hamilton had the better of Leclerc in qualifying and scored 84 points to Leclerc’s 30. Since then, Leclerc has had the advantage. The consolation for the Briton is that the gap is small, unlike last year. Hamilton qualified ahead in the Silverstone sprint, but was 0.172sec and 0.002sec behind in qualifying for the two grands prix. Likewise, he finished two places behind Leclerc in Great Britain, where the Monegasque won, and in Belgium.
One benefit of Leclerc finding form – at least assuming Russell continues to struggle – is that it might help Ferrari strategically in races. There is also the possibility of Leclerc taking points off Russell and Antonelli, if the SF-26 is up to it. It is too early to expect Ferrari to favour Hamilton over Leclerc in the championship, but if Hamilton keeps the pressure up on Antonelli and increases his gap over Leclerc, there may be a time in the autumn when it happens.
A record ninth win at the Hungaroring would not guarantee that Hamilton can disrupt Antonelli enough and often enough to cause Mercedes a headache in the second half of the season. It would, though, make his credentials for an eighth world championship a little firmer. How strange it feels to be writing that sentence a year after it appeared his days at the top of the sport were numbered.
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