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For the second straight year, Texas is enters the upcoming season among the buzzy national championship favorites — albeit with slightly less hype than it did a year ago. In fact, two months before the official start of the 2026 season, the Longhorns have the second-best betting odds to be the national champion at +650 — just behind Ohio State (+600) — according to BetMGM.
Texas was in a similar position roughly 12 months ago and failed to even make the College Football Playoffs after stumbling out of the block. Despite opening last year as the preseason No. 1, the Longhorns infamously dropped a 14-7 season-opener to the Buckeyes before ultimately finishing 10-3 — with all three loses coming on the road.
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Of course, this is a new year and Texas features one of college football’s most expensive rosters after head coach Steve Sarkisian dove into the transfer portal in January and came away with the No. 10-ranked class, according to On3’s Transfer Portal Team Ranking. The Longhorns added 22 transfers this offseason, including the No. 1 receiver in Cam Coleman and elite running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers to reinforce an already loaded offense led by superstar quarterback Arch Manning.
Yet, given Texas’ recent history, ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit isn’t quite ready to go all-in on the ‘Horns winning it all in 2026.
“This will be Sark’s best team, but can they handle it week-in and week-out?” Herbstreit said during a Wednesday appearance on The Pat McAfee Show during a segment about 2026 title contenders. “… I just don’t know if Texas, with all that pressure on them, that’s a tough spot. But Sark’s has been close the last three years. … I think they’re going to be in the Playoff, right in the mix, could win the SEC. I just don’t know if they win it all.”
One of the main reasons for Herbstreit’s confidence in Texas has to do with a resurgent Manning, the much-ballyhooed nephew of Hall of Fame quarterbacks Eli and Peyton Manning. Despite experiencing some early turnover issues in his first season as the starter, Arch Manning rallied down the stretch and finished with 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns to seven interceptions on 61.4% passing in 2025.
It’s because of that early adversity that Herbstreit expects even bigger things from Manning in 2026.
“Don’t you think what he went through last year, that was the greatest thing for his growth and development, and not just at Texas but moving forward into the NFL,” Herbstreit said of Manning. “… Dealing with (lofty preseason expectations) going into Ohio State — he’s going to win the Heisman, he’s the first pick in the draft, the best player we’ve ever seen in the history of football — then goes through some struggles and deals with all that scrutiny, the media scrutiny, social media, everybody crushing him for five, six weeks.
“And then to get through that on the back end and finish the year pretty solid, I just think having that behind him is really going to allow him to just relax and play ball this year,” Herbstreit concluded. “And I think we’ll be able to point to that (adversity) throughout his entire NFL career to that first year as a starter and dealing with that pressure, and how that helped him grow up. I think he’s going to have a great year.”
What that could mean for Texas’ national championship chances next season is yet to be seen, but Herbstreit isn’t ready to bet the farm on the ‘Horns just yet.
