Israel remains on sidelines of US-Iran fight, which for Jerusalem is just fine for now

American forces hit Iran again on Monday, marking 10 consecutive nights of escalating back-and-forth attacks — as well as the 34th day of the 60-day ceasefire the two sides signed in June.

The US Central Command continues to focus its efforts on Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems.

Iran, meanwhile, keeps firing missiles and drones at Arab countries, saying it is targeting US assets in the region.

Though the fighting remains somewhat limited for now, there is always the possibility of further escalation. Two US soldiers were killed in an Iranian attack in Jordan over the weekend, while another died in Iraq.

To the surprise of some, Israel has sat on the sidelines for this round of fighting. Iran has attacked next door in Jordan, but so far hasn’t fired on the Jewish state.

There is no guarantee that will remain the case. In the security meeting convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday night, defense officials told the forum that there is an active debate in Tehran over whether to bring Israel into the line of fire.

But for now, Israel is watching closely from the sidelines.

“Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States — the current situation is the best one for us,” argued Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Smotrich is absolutely correct. After being stunned by an inconceivably bad MOU signed by US President Donald Trump on June 17, things are starting to move in a more advantageous direction for Israel.

Still, the Iranian threat is not going to be solved if the current situation persists.

Not Israel’s fight

To Iran’s new leadership, there is one result from its recent — and in its eyes, victorious — fight against the US and Israel that stands out above all others — control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran reads the MOU as giving it authority to control which ships transit the key waterway, and to charge what it sees fit. It is now determined to impose that reading on the world.

With dozens of vessels crossing a southern corridor through the strait in Omani waters earlier this month every day, guided by the US Navy, Iran saw its leverage in talks slipping, and with it a formal recognition of its permanent control over Hormuz.

To show that it is serious, Iran resumed strikes on civilian ships transiting the Strait on July 6, betting that it could inflict enough economic pain on the world and on US voters to force Trump to give in to its demands over Hormuz.

Israel is simply not relevant to Iran’s Hormuz plan. Hitting Israel won’t make it turn to Trump and beg him to find a way out of the escalation and back to the negotiating table.

If anything, Israel would relish the opportunity to get in the fight.

Iran is well aware of what Israel is capable of. It was Israel — not the US — that took out dozens of Iranian leaders, including supreme leader Ali Khamenei, in both wars it has launched against Tehran.

As Iran’s foreign minister has indicated publicly, Israel has shown that its intelligence services have penetrated the regime deeply. If Israel is forced into the fight by an Iranian attack, or given the green light by Trump, it could well have more tricks up its sleeve, something comparable to the secret drone base it set up within Iran ahead of the 2025 Operation Rising Lion.

Moreover, despite Trump’s stream of threats, the US attacks are limited, focused primarily on the capabilities that allow Iran to threaten Hormuz. Israel would likely have no such limits, which could also factor into Iranian calculations.

For now, Israel has little reason to get in the way of a positive trend. The US continues to degrade Iranian capabilities, and still isn’t releasing billions of dollars into the Iranian economy.

Though US Vice President JD Vance might blame Israel for the badly stalled talks with Iran, that seems to be a pretty lonely position. With every day that goes by, the lengths to which Iran’s leaders will go to fulfill their demands, and the fact that they are not the good-faith partners that Trump wanted, are underscored.

Incentives for Arab countries to tighten their intelligence and security cooperation with Israel also grow as their approach of protecting themselves through diplomatic channels with Iran is proven futile.

In the meantime, Israel’s citizens are not facing sirens and late-night dashes to bomb shelters. Flights are slowly coming back to Ben Gurion Airport, and a sense of normality has returned, as Israelis focus on summer vacation plans and bicker over the upcoming elections.

Despite the unexpectedly comfortable situation, it is temporary. Iran has made no concessions on its nuclear program, and may even be actively preparing to enrich once again.

And Iran’s other threats to Israel — its ballistic missiles program and its armed proxy network — have not been solved, nor are they part of suspended talks between Iran and the US.

Those threats will remain a dangerous challenge for Israel and the region as long as the Islamic Republic remains. Nightly US strikes on Iran might weaken the regime, but won’t bring it down.

Israel should enjoy the quiet while it lasts, because, at some point sooner or later, renewed war with Iran is virtually guaranteed.

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