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Iran's threat to halt oil exports across the Gulf a 'dangerous escalation,' analyst warns

Iran
Iran

A Bahraini analyst warned that Tehran’s threat against regional infrastructure erases the line between US targets and Gulf economies, even if Iran may be attempting to project strength.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s threat against all infrastructure in the region is a “dangerous escalation in rhetoric,” Bahraini analyst Ahmed Alkhuzaie warned The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.

Ghalibaf, on social media Wednesday night, threatened to escalate the war, asserting that  “in a region where we do not sell oil, no one will sell oil. If our security is not ensured, no infrastructure will be safe…”

His comments come after a week of Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain. Amazon's central data infrastructure was targeted and destroyed by several cruise missiles on Tuesday, according to IRGC-affiliated media.

Iran also attacked several key infrastructure sites in Kuwait over the past week, including a power generation plant and a water desalination facility, attacks that could prove particularly devastating given the country’s ongoing water crisis and soaring temperatures.

“Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s remarks represent a dangerous escalation in rhetoric. By declaring that ‘no infrastructure will be safe’ and tying Gulf oil exports to Iran’s own ability to sell crude, he has moved beyond the earlier claim that only US assets in Gulf states were being targeted,” Alkhuzaie noted. “This shift collapses the distinction between American bases and the sovereign economies of Gulf nations, effectively placing the region itself in Tehran’s crosshairs.”

A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, July 16, 2026 (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)
A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, July 16, 2026 (credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)

Alkhuzaie: Ghalibaf throws out 'exaggerated threats'

Despite the threat, Alkhuzaie warned against taking Ghalibaf’s claims as evidence of the Islamic Republic’s true intentions, highlighting that Tehran has often made “exaggerated threats” to create “psychological pressure and political theater” without plans to actually execute such plans.

“The promise that Gulf states themselves would remain untouched while only US assets were at risk has always been a rhetorical shield, not a credible policy,” he admitted. “History demonstrates that when Iran escalates, the fallout is regional, indiscriminate, and destabilizing.”

Asserting that Ghalibaf’s words “should not be read as a sudden change of heart,” Alkhuzaie said that it was better understood as a “continuation of a long-standing pattern; using maximalist threats to project strength while ignoring the practical limits of Iran’s reach.”

“Gulf states and their partners must treat these statements as part of the architecture of deception that has characterized Iranian diplomacy for decades, and respond with vigilance, unity, and clear mechanisms to deter further destabilization,” he concluded. 

Read full story on The Jerusalem Post

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