SerpApi.Org
Just three months after Sir Keir Starmer led Labour to a sweeping general election victory in July 2024, a convicted armed kidnapper single-handedly took the gloss off his fledgling government.
Posing on a new £150,000 Bentley after being let out seven weeks earlier than expected from a seven-year sentence for kidnap and grievous bodily harm, Daniel Dowling-Brooks shouted to the cameras: “Big up Keir Starmer.”
The images were splashed all over newspaper front pages and television bulletins in late October 2024, a humiliating snapshot of the new Government’s emergency programme of prison releases.
It was a moment that revealed a prison system close to collapse – one which seemed to reward criminals at the expense of victims.
And yet, from that point onwards, the early release scheme which launched the month before Dowling-Brooks walked free only ramped up.
Indeed, figures show that from September 2024 to June 2025, more than 38,000 prisoners had the custodial part of their sentences cut short, let out after serving 40 per cent of their sentence rather than 50 per cent.
And now, despite widespread outrage over the scheme, even more radical measures are about to be implemented in another desperate attempt to free up space in overcrowded jails, creating a huge headache for Andy Burnham, Starmer’s successor. The new Prime Minister was forced to wade into the row during his second full day in office, after The Telegraph revealed that two of Pc Andrew Harper’s killers are among the criminals who could be released under the new regime, which would make serious criminals eligible to be freed halfway through their sentences rather than two-thirds of the way through and is expected to become operational in September.
On Wednesday, Lissie Harper, the late Thames Valley police officer’s widow, described the situation as “deplorable”, and Jason Hogg, the force’s chief constable, warned that the proposed early release of Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole was “wrong”, urging Burnham to act.
The seeds of the current jail capacity crisis were sown under the Conservatives when prison building failed to match a rise in the length of sentences, driving up the prison population.
About 13,000 new places were made available between 2010 and 2024, but around 12,500 older, dilapidated cells were taken out of use – a net increase of only 500 spaces.
Rishi Sunak introduced an early release scheme in October 2023, which saw around 13,000 inmates let out, but in the run-up to the 2024 general election he rejected the scheme, later taken up by Starmer, which allowed criminals to be released after serving just 40 per cent of their sentence.
Sunak had been warned by senior civil servants that the police and the judiciary would no longer be able to exercise their legal duties due to overcrowding. A leaked Cabinet Office memo stated that the administration of justice would become “untenable” and lead to a “critical failure”. But ramping up the early release of prisoners would have been politically toxic. Instead, Labour was left to pick up the pieces after the election.
Jails were operating at 99 per cent capacity and at one point there were fewer than 100 spaces left.
The 40 per cent emergency scheme which Dowling-Brooks benefited from brought the Government some breathing space, but Shabana Mahmood, who was then justice secretary, knew they had to go further. Official projections showed that the prison population in England and Wales would continue to grow by over 3,000 every year, reaching between 97,300 and 112,300 by 2032. Even with investment in new prison places (14,000 are planned by 2031) officials said jails would run out of room with “catastrophic consequences” for the criminal justice system.
A Ministry of Justice (MoJ) “impact assessment” said that without intervention, trials would no longer go ahead, police would be unable to make arrests and there would be a “complete breakdown of law and order in the community”.
Against that background, the Government adopted the bulk of the recommendations of a review Mahmood had commissioned by the former Tory justice secretary, Sir David Gauke. The thrust of the proposals, which form the basis of the Sentencing Act subsequently driven through Parliament by Mahmood’s successor, David Lammy, is to reduce the number of offenders in prisons and make more use of community penalties. Unlike the Tories, Lammy, who became justice secretary in September 2025, appeared either oblivious to the political toxicity of releasing more prisoners earlier, or content to shoulder the inevitable backlash from the public and victims.
The measure which has caused the biggest controversy is the introduction of an “earned progression” model which the MoJ claims will link prisoners’ release to conduct. “It is intended to incentivise positive behaviour in prison, support rehabilitation and help reduce the risk of reoffending,” says the impact assessment. The reality, however, is that the scheme is a device to free up space in jails.
Prisoners serving fixed terms, known as “standard determinate sentences” will be freed after spending just 33 per cent of their sentence in custody, rather than 40 per cent, after which they will be monitored by probation staff. More serious offenders who were entitled to release two-thirds of the way through their term will be let out at the halfway mark.
The first 700 criminals are expected to be freed in September, followed by similar numbers for each of the next nine months in a staggered release plan. The MoJ predicts that in 2028, the measure will free up 3,600 places.
Unlike the initial early release programme that Labour launched, however, no categories of offender are excluded: it will apply to sex offenders, domestic abusers and even those, like two of Pc Andrew Harper’s killers, convicted of manslaughter.
For months, there have been warnings that the scheme would compromise public safety. Claire Waxman, the victims’ commissioner, said the most serious offenders should be exempted, with others undergoing robust risk assessments and intensive supervision on release.
Two weeks ago, however, she said none of the safeguards were in place and urged Lammy, who was then the justice secretary, to halt the scheme.
“I do not believe this work has progressed far enough in time for the proposed releases in September and am concerned that victims and the public will be placed at risk,” she told Lammy in a letter on July 8.
Jess Phillips, the former Home Office safeguarding minister, also demanded exemptions, including for those jailed for raping children. She too raised concerns about the adequacy of risk assessments for freed prisoners.
“I have to say that my experience of risk assessment in these cases is not great. It does not take account of the victim or public safety more broadly,” she said.
Until now, however, it appears that ministers have not been listening. Burnham’s pledge to review the potential early release of Harper’s killers might finally indicate that is changing. But, as his mother, Debbie Adlam, puts it: “We shouldn’t be talking about this. It shouldn’t be an issue. We should have a justice system that works, but it doesn’t.”
Even if Burnham prevents the early release of her son’s killers, “it’s not just about us”, she says. “There must be hundreds of families feeling this.”
Whether new Justice Secretary Alex Norris is able to do what Lammy failed to do – delaying or reversing the changes – will be one of the biggest tests for Andy Burnham’s new administration.
