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President Donald Trump’s new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods have opened another front in the U.S.-Canada trade war—but the effects may not stop at cars, alcohol and cheese.
The White House said on Monday that Trump had signed three proclamations imposing additional tariffs on certain Canadian imports, citing what it called Canada’s discriminatory treatment of American autos, alcoholic beverages and dairy products.
The measures, brought under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, are set to take effect 30 days after signing and apply to covered goods even if they would otherwise qualify for preferential treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford quickly urged Canada to hit back if the tariffs go ahead. “If these tariffs proceed, Canada should respond tariff for tariff, dollar for dollar,” Ford posted on social media, raising the prospect of another round of retaliation between two economies whose supply chains and grocery aisles are closely linked.
For shoppers, the question is simple: if a 50 percent import tax is added to goods moving across the U.S.-Canada border, how much of that cost ends up in the grocery basket?
The answer is not as simple as adding 50 percent to every item on a receipt. Tariffs are paid by importers, not directly by shoppers at the checkout, but economists say those costs can be passed through the supply chain to distributors, retailers and consumers.
A 2026 Federal Reserve note found that tariffs imposed in 2025 contributed to higher core goods prices, with effects building over several months.
Newsweek reached out to the White House, USTR and Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s office via email for comment.
How a 50 Percent Tariff Could Change a Grocery Basket
The White House said the new tariff actions are aimed at offsetting Canada’s treatment of U.S. exports in three sectors: motor vehicles, alcoholic beverages and dairy.
In its fact sheet, the administration said the covered products range from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and that the tariffs will not apply to energy, potash, products already subject to Section 232 tariffs, and certain other goods, including fish and critical minerals.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada had “taken U.S. alcohol products off Canadian shelves, given better market access to dairy products from the European Union, and has put a cap on U.S. vehicle exports to Canada from companies reshoring to the United States.”
A tariff does not always translate into an identical shelf-price increase. Importers may absorb some of the cost, suppliers may renegotiate prices, retailers may spread the increase across product lines, or shoppers may see prices rise directly.
But if the full cost were passed on, the change could be noticeable.
An illustrative basket of Canadian-origin goods could look like this:
The beverage sector is one area where U.S. shoppers may notice effects most clearly. U.S. imports of beverages, spirits and vinegar from Canada were worth $1.56 billion in 2025, including spirits, flavored waters, cider, wine and beer, according to UN Comtrade data from Trading Economics.
Is Fresh Produce Included in Trump’s Canada Tariffs?
Fresh fruits and vegetables are among Canada’s biggest exports to the United States, with tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, potatoes and mushrooms alone accounting for billions of dollars in annual trade.
The White House has said the measures apply to covered goods regardless of whether they qualify for duty-free treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), but it is still unclear if this means fruits and vegetables will be affected by Trump’s new Section 338 tariffs.
What ‘Dollar for Dollar’ Retaliation Would Mean
Ford’s “dollar for dollar” call does not mean U.S. shoppers would automatically face a second 50 percent price increase on the same grocery items.
If Canada imposed matching tariffs on U.S. goods, the duties would be paid on products entering Canada. The immediate price impact would therefore fall most directly on Canadian importers and Canadian consumers buying U.S.-origin goods.
But retaliation could still hit Americans indirectly. U.S. farmers, distillers, food manufacturers and dairy producers could lose Canadian sales if Canadian retailers switch suppliers, reduce orders or raise prices for U.S.-made products. That could pressure exporters, disrupt supply chains and create new costs for businesses already dealing with tariffs on the U.S. side of the border.
Canada has already used food as part of its tariff response. In March 2025, the Canadian government imposed 25 percent tariffs on $30 billion in U.S. goods, with its list covering a wide range of grocery and food products, including poultry, dairy, eggs, tomatoes, citrus fruit, coffee, tea, spices, wheat and other items.
Why Cheese, Wine and Beer Matter
The White House has framed the dispute partly around Canada’s treatment of American cheese and alcohol. Trump’s proclamations cite Canada’s dairy quota system, provincial restrictions on American alcohol sales and limits on U.S. motor vehicle exports.
The administration says the tariffs are intended to level the playing field for American exporters. Critics warn they could instead raise costs for families and businesses. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the dispute had already “raised costs for families, particularly in the U.S.”
Candace Laing, CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, called the administration’s moves “regrettable” and said the two countries should use the 30-day window before the tariffs begin “to make meaningful progress in advancing formal talks.”
The Bigger Picture
The new tariffs come at a politically sensitive time for Trump, who campaigned on lowering prices but has faced criticism that import taxes risk pushing costs higher.
For now, the grocery-basket impact is best understood as a risk rather than a certainty. A 50 percent tariff on a Canadian product creates a clear new cost at the border. Whether that turns a $15 bottle of wine into a $22.50 bottle, or produces a smaller increase, depends on how much of the burden companies decide—or are able—to pass on.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Rebecca Flood and Emma Lee-Sang
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