Sports

History suggests this version of Phillies will be lucky to make playoffs

Philadelphia Phillies On SI · Jul 22, 2026 19:00 · 3 min read

History Suggests This Version of Phillies Will Be Lucky To Make Playoffs — Jul 16, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm (28) against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm provided some insight into why the team is struggling to consistently get on base.

The Philadelphia Phillies made history with the turnaround they have undergone during the 2026 MLB regular season.

No team before them has been at least 10 games under the .500 mark in April and then reached at least 10 games over the .500 mark before the end of June. Things started to turn for the team when Don Mattingly took over as interim manager for Rob Thomson, who was fired when the team was 9-19.

Now 56-46 entering play on July 22, the Phillies are right back in the playoff picture in the National League, only three games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. Many MLB experts believe Philadelphia has what it takes to chase their rivals down in the division, but there are still obstacles to overcome on the field.

Namely, their inconsistencies with getting on base. Their .303 on-base percentage is last in baseball in 2026, and third baseman Alec Bohm provided a little bit of insight into why the team is struggling so much.

Phillies struggling mightily to get on base

Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Edmundo Sosa (33) hits a solo home run. — Jun 13, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Edmundo Sosa (33) hits a solo home run in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“A lot of it’s got to do with how tough the pitching’s gotten in this league,” Bohm said, via Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription required). “You can really run into some teams with some tough bullpens. They can match up well. It seems like you can go through some games where you see just three guys throwing 100 from both sides and moving the ball around. Sometimes, you can wait those guys out and get some pitches in the middle and do something with them. Sometimes, they end up just kind of dominating you.”

History is certainly not in favor of the Phillies when it comes to finding success while getting on base as infrequently as they do. As Gelb noted, only five teams with an on-base percentage of .305 or lower have qualified for the playoffs since 1961, when the MLB expanded to 18 teams.

Only two of those teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1988 and the Detroit Tigers in 2024, managed to advance in the postseason. Those are some long odds Philadelphia is looking to overcome, and some people will point to their truly horrific start to the season as a reason it is so low.

It certainly didn’t help that the Phillies' OBP was .298 through their first 26 games of the season. However, they weren’t much better in their following 74 games to get to the 100-game mark, getting on base at only a .305 clip.

History not on the Phillies side for playoff success

It is going to take more than the addition of one right-handed batter to help improve what is an overall team deficiency. But at least it is not a complete lost cause offensively for Philadelphia, which is fourth in the MLB with 133 home runs through 102 games.

Long balls will certainly help cover up some of the warts offensively, but it would sure be nice if someone were on base more often for Kyle Schwarber, who leads baseball with 33 home runs thus far this season.

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