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Welcome to the steals report! I will be here every Wednesday to go over important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard on the season so far.
Full Season Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Nasim Nuñez | 37 | 4 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 30 | 5 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 26 | 5 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 25 | 10 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 25 | 6 |
| José Ramírez | 24 | 2 |
| Chandler Simpson | 24 | 11 |
| José Caballero | 23 | 8 |
| Oneil Cruz | 21 | 4 |
| Josh Naylor | 20 | 2 |
| Konnor Griffin | 20 | 1 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 20 | 3 |
| Jackson Merrill | 20 | 2 |
Nasim Nuñez is running away with the stolen base crown. He remains in the Nationals’ lineup on a near everyday basis and has a shot to reach 50 steals this season. Kudos to anyone who drafted him late in their deep leagues.
We’re all very excited that José Ramírez is due back soon and could even skip a rehab assignment altogether.
Keep an eye on Esteury Ruiz. He’s managed 20 steals with just 125 plate appearances this season and has been playing a bit more since Owen Caissie went on the injured list. He’s worth a roster spot in deeper rotisserie leagues if you’re looking to climb in steals and are willing to sacrifice other categories a bit.
Last 14 Days Stolen Base Leaders
| Player | SB | CS |
| Josh Naylor | 5 | 1 |
| Derek Hill | 4 | 0 |
| Dansby Swanson | 4 | 0 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 4 | 1 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4 | 0 |
| Jackson Chourio | 4 | 0 |
| Carson Benge | 4 | 0 |
| Jake McCarthy | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Walker | 3 | 0 |
| Kahlil Watson | 3 | 0 |
| Chandler Simpson | 3 | 0 |
| Three More Tied | 3 | - |
Josh Naylor is finding value with stolen bases despite having a rough season at the plate.
In 14 games since moving out of the lead-off spot, Carson Benge has five of his 16 stolen bases and hasn’t been caught. He’s still hitting well and getting on base a ton while making a home for himself in the five-hole for the Mets.
Stolen Base Disappointments
| Player | SB | CS |
| Jakob Marsee | 19 | 10 |
| Brice Turang | 15 | 3 |
| Zach Neto | 13 | 9 |
| A.J. Ewing | 11 | 6 |
| Austin Martin | 10 | 6 |
| Daylen Lile | 9 | 5 |
| Andy Pages | 8 | 6 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 8 | 4 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 7 | 5 |
| Anthony Volpe | 7 | 4 |
| Juan Soto | 7 | 3 |
| Maikel Garcia | 5 | 3 |
| Francisco Lindor | 2 | 2 |
| Jose Altuve | 2 | 2 |
| Willy Adames | 2 | 2 |
| Ozzie Albies | 1 | 3 |
| Mookie Betts | 1 | 2 |
Brice Turang’s disappearing stolen bases seem to be an unfortunate consequence of his breakout as a hitter.
After stealing 50 in 2024, he only swiped 24 last season and is on pace for slightly fewer than that this season. He’s still the second ranked second baseman according to earned value on the FanGraphs player rater, so we can’t be too mad.
Whether it be the calf issue that knocked him out for most of April, losing his first base coach, or the Mets generally poor play, Juan Soto will not get close to his 38 stolen bases from last season. Honestly, he probably never will again. That was fun though.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
In a 10-game stretch from the last time this column came out, the Marlins allowed 21 stolen bases. In 10 games.
No other team gave up more than 11 over the same stretch and this is a sad break from how strong the Marlins have been against the run game over the last few months. They’re also trapped in an eight-game losing streak entering play Wednesday as this issue has arisen.
Last season, the Marlins were one of the worst teams of all-time in this area and Agustín Ramírez’s deficiencies behind the plate were a big reason why. They pulled the plug on him in early May, installed defensive-stud Joe Mack at catcher, and had allowed some of the fewest steals league-wide since then (before this last stretch).
At first, I assumed most of these bases were stolen on Mack’s off days. Liam Hicks still mixes in at catcher and was almost as bad as Ramírez back there last season. Brian Navarreto does as well, but he's a plus defender.
Regardless, 12 of these steals came in the seven games which Mack started and he only caught one runner. All season before then, he allowed 25 stolen bases and caught and caught 17 runners.
Part of this uptick are who the Marlins played against: the Brewers and Guardians. They are tied for the fourth-most stolen bases among all teams and are very aggressive.
It was also pitching related. Four stolen bases came against Mack and Eury Pérez on the Saturday before the break. Pérez is the worst pitcher in the run game according to Statcast and has struggled with such his entire career. Yet, he was paired with Hicks in his next start and only let up one steal, but that was mostly because he didn’t let many on base in general.
Last Saturday, the Brewers stole seven bases with Mack behind the plate, five of which came in the six innings their bullpen pitched. Relievers are often worse at holding runners on that starters, but it’s difficult to project those opportunities for our purposes.
Nevertheless, the Marlins are once again a team we should peak at again to stream stolen bases. At least on days when Pérez pitches – like this Saturday against the Padres. They also face the Phillies next week, so check out Derek Hill, Justin Crawford, or Sung-Mun Song for cheap speed.
An Unfortunate Streak
Iván Herrera has become a quality hitter. His .793 OPS since the start of last season is 10th-best among all catcher eligible players with at least 600 plate appearances. He also hasn’t thrown out a base stealer since 2024.
That’s almost impossible to rationalize and a big reason why Herrera only catches one or two days per week for the Cardinals. That was enough to pick up catcher eligibility though for both this season and next, which makes us fantasy managers grateful.
