SerpApi.Org
Of all the hopefuls waiting to make their mark on the Portland Trail Blazers this season, the most prominent remains the third overall pick from the 2023 NBA Draft, guard Scoot Henderson. Entering his fourth season, Henderson carries the same heavy load of question marks that has dogged him throughout his career. His boundless athleticism and considerable talent have been muted, potential locked into a box walled by injuries and indecision. Every year Scoot seems to make a little progress. Still the cry rises, “How much, and how long?”
The question is going to come to a boil, as Henderson is entering the fourth year of his rookie-scale contract, eligible for an extension this summer with restricted free agency impending at the end of the season if he and the Blazers can’t come to an agreement.
These concerns are reflected in this question from the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag:
Dave,
Let’s talk about Scoot. Ja Morant is here now to play point guard. Does that mean Scoot is a shooting guard now? I don’t see how he beats out Ja and Dame and Jrue Holiday all at once. Is [Shaedon Sharpe] his main competition now? Or is this just a bad development in his career like in all the years before this? Is he unlucky or what?
Sam
Our analysis is going to be hampered by the hamstring injury that limited Henderson to 30 games last season. Even adding in the huge bright spot of his five-game playoffs series versus the San Antonio Spurs, that’s not a ton of data to work with.
However, we can say this. Scoot hasn’t been a true point guard since his rookie season. His offense has been typified by two trends: increasing reliance on the three-point shot and a large number of shots assisted versus self-created.
Last season, 47.4% of Henderson’s shot attempts came beyond the arc. That’s in line with the 46.9% he took during his sophomore season. Both are well above the 41.6% rate his rookie year.
The good news about that is that his 35.2% success rate on distance shots is acceptable. He’s no Klay Thompson, but he’s not the eyesore we once thought he might be. The bad news is that 35% still isn’t great for a point-production guard at the NBA level. If we transported back to Draft Day, 2023 and said, “Scoot Henderson’s main contribution is going to be as a three-point shooter!” the response would be, “Wait, what?” The role just isn’t sufficient, nor is it suited, for a player of his potential.
Diverting now into those assisted shots, 77.2% of Scoot’s three’s come off of other people’s passes instead of his own dribble. That’s up from 59.8% his rookie season. 38.4% of his two-point makes are assists, up from 27.7%. Henderson has become an off-ball scorer, more of a shooting guard than point. In fact, his percentage of three-point field goals assisted is far higher than Sharpe’s, the actual shooting guard in the rotation. (Sharpe has a higher percentage on two-pointers assisted.)
We can take the comparison further. Sharpe probably isn’t aggressive enough getting to the rim given his athletic ability. 7.6% of his field goal attempts last season were dunks. Henderson registered less than half that, at 3.5%. Sharpe had 55 dunks in 50 games, Henderson just 11 in 30 appearances. Only 24% of Sharpe’s shot attempts came within 3 feet of the rim; Henderson was lower at 20.5%. Henderson’s 61.4% conversion rate at the rim was worse than every regular rotation member of the Blazers (by a mile) save Rayan Rupert. He and Sharpe both drew 6.4 free throw attempts per 100 possessions. That’s about the only saving grace for them.
Playing Henderson and Sharpe is kind of like driving two classic muscle cars but never pushing the gas pedal hard enough to get above 50MPH. Uncorking some of the “pop” inherent in his frame and instinctive playing style is going to be one of the keys to unlocking Scoot’s potential.
Let’s assume the current trends continue, though. If Henderson is going to be an off-ball shooter, what else can he do to justify his participation, particularly if his shooting numbers are average?
One question is, “Can he pass?” Henderson averaged 7.2 assists per 100 possessions last season, but Portland’s offense wasn’t predicated on distribution from his position. He was a play-ender, not a facilitator. Assuming new Head Coach Micah Nori opens up the offense a little—a near-necessity, given the number of classic point guards on the team—Scoot should have a chance to move the ball again. In his first two seasons, he averaged 9.3 assists per 100 possessions. That’s not far south of LeBron James. It’s north of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. This could be a ray of light at the end of the tunnel for Henderson.
The bigger question is, “Can he defend?” At point guard, Henderson’s 6’3 height and linebacker shoulders are more than adequate. Does the same hold when he’s defending players between 6’5 and 6’8? Henderson showed ability as a free-safety defender last year, getting in the passing lanes and poking away the ball. If Nori calls blitzes, Scoot may be the best option at his position defensively. But can he lock down opposing guards one-on-one at any position above the point? This, more than anything, may determine his fate with Portland.
Right now, Henderson is stuck in a series of dualities. Is he a shooter or a driver? Is he a point guard or an off guard? Is he a facilitator or a scorer? The best possible answer he could provide is, “All of the above!” Demonstrating talent and versatility is the best way to get on the court despite the crowded field in front of him. Whatever the question is, you want the answer to be Scoot.
Until that happens, he’ll be plagued by the same old “Star or Bust?” duality that 10,000-foot national analysts are judging. We don’t have a resolution to that issue yet, but the time is definitely coming. Pretty soon the lack of an answer will become its own answer, so let’s hope Scoot can step up.
The one thing I’ve heard repeatedly lately is that Henderson is a serious, hard worker. This, too, carries a duality. On the one hand, you love it. On the other, this is the Scoot we get when he’s working his hardest? However, that quality may be the secret sauce that endears him to coaches and allows him to break through now that he has enough experience and vision to know how to apply the effort.
Either way, we’re not going to have to wait much longer for the answer. The rotation may be stacked in front of Henderson this year, but so is the opportunity. It’s make-or-break time for him. Let’s see what he does.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to [email protected] and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
