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Iowa‘s farm economy is under mounting pressure, with net farm income falling 53 percent from 2022 to 2024 and row-crop producers facing a third consecutive year in which production costs generally exceed crop prices. The downturn comes at a politically significant moment for a state that has become one of the Republican Party‘s strongest Midwestern strongholds, raising new questions about whether economic frustration in farm country could create an opening for Democrats in two closely watched statewide races.
A new report released by Iowa State University (ISU), the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation and the Iowa Bankers Association found that low commodity prices, elevated production costs and continuing uncertainty are weighing heavily on Iowa agriculture.
“The agricultural economy has been struggling more than, say, other parts of the U.S. general economy, and it has been suffering through this downturn now about three years. So it is a multi-year event that is dragging on,” Chad Hart, one of the report’s authors and an agricultural economics professor at Iowa State University, told Newsweek.
The findings arrive as Democrats Rob Sand and Josh Turek seek to flip the governor’s office and an open Senate seat, respectively, in a state President Donald Trump carried by roughly 13 percentage points in 2024.
Why Iowa’s Farm Economy Matters Politically
Agriculture remains central to Iowa’s economy and identity. According to the report, agriculture-related industries contribute roughly $51.5 billion annually to Iowa’s economy, representing about 19 percent of the state’s gross domestic product.
Researchers warned that prolonged weakness in farming will not be limited to producers themselves, but could also affect rural communities, agricultural lenders, equipment dealers, grain elevators and other businesses tied to the sector.
“Agriculture’s reach goes well beyond just its direct production,” Hart said. “Depending on how you want to count it, it’s 20 to 25% of the state’s gross domestic product that’s related to agriculture.”
The report’s most striking finding was the decline in profitability.
Net farm income—a key U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) measure of farm earnings—fell by 53 percent from 2022 to 2024. Researchers said row-crop farmers are experiencing a third straight year in which costs exceed prices, while corn production costs have risen 37 percent since 2021 and soybean production costs have risen 36 percent.
Trade uncertainty also remains a concern. The report highlights the ongoing importance of export markets and includes a section examining the impact of China’s retaliatory tariffs on Iowa agriculture, a reminder that international trade remains a major issue for one of America’s most export-dependent farm states.
“The usual impacts to net income seem to have their cycles, but if anything typifies the recent years, it’s uncertainty and its impact on profits,” John Crespi, Ph.D., director of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at ISU said in a press release. “Inflation, tariffs, trade, labor, the Farm Bill, the Iran War, screwworm all add to uncertainty, all add to risk, making it harder to plan for the long term.”
Can Democrats Turn Economic Frustration Into Votes?
In the governor’s race, Sand—the state’s auditor and one of Iowa’s best-known Democratic officeholders—is running ahead of Republican Zach Lahn in multiple public polls despite Iowa’s recent Republican lean. An average of recent surveys gives Sand roughly a 5-point advantage statewide.
A Fox News poll released earlier this month put Sand ahead 53 percent to 44 percent, while a New York Times/Siena College survey found the race much tighter at 48 percent to 47 percent.
The Senate race appears even more competitive.
Recent polling averages show Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Turek effectively tied. A Fox News survey found Turek leading Hinson 50 percent to 46 percent, while Siena College and Cygnal polls showed Hinson holding narrow advantages. Across recent public polling, neither candidate has managed to establish a clear lead.
Taken together, the polling suggests Iowa may be more politically competitive in 2026 than the state’s recent presidential voting history would imply.
Prediction markets suggest investors and political traders see a clearer Democratic path in the governor’s race than in the Senate contest.
On Kalshi, Sand was recently favored with roughly 63 percent odds of victory, while Hinson remained a narrow favorite over Turek despite polls showing the Senate race effectively tied.
Newsweek reached out to the two Senate and two gubernatorial candidates for comment via email Monday morning.
Why These Polls Matter
Those numbers are particularly striking because they come less than two years after Trump carried Iowa by about 13 percentage points.
In recent election cycles, Iowa has evolved from a battleground state into one of Republicans’ most reliable Midwestern strongholds. Trump won the state in 2016, expanded his margin in 2020 and again carried it comfortably in 2024. Republicans also control the legislature and most statewide elected offices.
That history has made the competitiveness of both the governor’s and Senate races notable to political strategists in both parties.
The unusual competitiveness of Iowa’s statewide races has coincided with an effort by candidates in both parties to put farmers and rural voters at the center of their campaigns. While they often agree that Iowa agriculture is facing challenges, they have offered sharply different diagnoses of the problems and competing visions for how to address them.
In the Senate race, Hinson has positioned herself as a defender of Iowa producers against outside regulation, making her “Save Our Bacon Act” a centerpiece of the campaign. Hinson argues that laws such as California’s Proposition 12 unfairly burden Iowa livestock producers and has repeatedly said she will “stand with Iowa agriculture.”
Turek, meanwhile, has sought to tap into economic frustrations within rural Iowa. Through a “Farmers for Turek” coalition, he has argued that farmers are being squeezed by rising input costs, market consolidation and the lack of a new Farm Bill.
“Josh Turek knows that Iowa farmers are hurting right now, and it’s because of politicians like Ashley Hinson. Hinson has repeatedly betrayed rural Iowa and voted to hurt farmers by supporting chaotic tariffs and a Middle East war that is driving up the cost of diesel and fertilizer,” a Turek spokesperson told Newsweek on Monday.
“In the U.S. Senate, Josh Turek will champion legislation that allows Iowa farmers to compete, including passing nationwide, year-round E15, sponsoring a Right to Repair bill, cracking down on monopolies, and not letting Congress leave until they pass a damn Farm Bill.”
What Democrats Are Hoping
Democrats are not necessarily expecting large numbers of farmers to suddenly become Democratic voters. Instead, the political math is often about margins. Hart explained that many rural Iowan voters do lean conservative, so flipping them blue may be tricky.
“The challenges we’re seeing in agriculture right now, some of them are definitely related to policies set up by the current administration,” Hart said. “So that is having a negative feedback loop in here, but it’s… let’s call it manifesting itself in a few different ways.”
Hart said that during the Republican primary in the state, there was what he viewed as a “sizable split” among different GOP candidates, having debated whether to continue supporting the current administration in Washington, D.C., over socially conservative policies, even if some other decisions have caused their industry damage.
“Or do they, maybe, sit this election out for a while?” Hart said. “They’re not likely to switch sides, but they’re likely that if they’re going to do anything, they might stay home.”
If economic frustrations reduce Republican support even slightly in rural counties while Democrats maximize turnout in population centers like Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, statewide races could become highly competitive. Recent polling suggests that possibility cannot be dismissed.
The new agricultural report offers Democrats a fresh data point to support that argument.
“Iowa farmers shouldn’t have to work twice as hard just to fall further behind. This report confirms what farmers have been saying for years: we’re paying more, earning less, and getting squeezed from every direction, with no help from our leaders,” Dave Muhlbauer, Sand’s nominee for lieutenant governor, said in a press release his team pointed Newsweek to on Monday.
“Family farmers deserve leaders who will stand with them and know first-hand the struggles they face, not leave them to shoulder the burden alone. We can’t afford four more years of the same. It’s time for leadership that will put Iowa farmers first, give family farms a fair shot to succeed, and build a stronger future for rural Iowa. That’s exactly what Rob Sand and I are fighting for.”
Trump’s Standing May Be Part of the Story
Some Democrats also see signs that Trump’s political position may not be as dominant as Iowa’s presidential results suggest.
CNBC recently reported that Democratic strategists view Iowa as one of the more competitive states on the 2026 map amid concerns about the farm economy and signs of softer support for the president.
While Trump remains popular among many Republican voters, Democratic campaigns are increasingly arguing that economic concerns—from farm profitability to commodity prices and rural economic growth—could affect down-ballot races even in areas that remain supportive of the president.
“Thus far, although some of the messaging in the various races-gubernatorial, Senate, Congressional-has dealt with higher costs, not too much has focused specifically on farm costs,” Timothy Hagle, associate professor at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek.
“Trump has endorsed Hinson and Lahn, but opposition advertising hasn’t focused on those connections so far. Still, we probably won’t see the races really get into high gear until after Labor Day. We’ll also know more then as to what’s going on with Iran, gas prices, etc.”
Trump has made repeated promises that he will help American farmers, both through his tariffs on imports, while also seeking to bolster American jobs through his immigration policies. On Monday, the president said financial aid for farmers would be included in the latest budget resolution making its way through Congress, tied to his SAVE America Act, a sweeping election reform bill that remains stalled in the Senate.
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