Crown Holdings downgraded by JP Morgan after strong rally

J.P. Morgan downgraded Crown Holdings (CCK) to Neutral from Overweight on Wednesday, arguing that the packaging company's recent share price gains have largely captured its improving outlook even as second quarter operating trends exceeded expectations.

Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas raised his December 2027 price target to $121 from a prior December 2026 target of $107 while increasing earnings estimates for both 2026 and 2027. However, he said the stock's valuation now leaves limited upside after trading above the firm's previous target.

Crown (CCK) shares closed Tuesday at $117.99.

World Cup boosts North American demand

J.P. Morgan said Crown's (CCK) global beverage can business delivered stronger than expected volume growth during the second quarter, with worldwide trends benefiting from healthy consumer demand and temporary support from the FIFA World Cup.

North American beverage can volumes increased about 5% during the quarter, with the company estimating that World Cup-related consumption accounted for roughly 2 to 3 percentage points of that growth. Europe posted about 7% volume growth, supported by gains across most regions except Eastern Europe. Crown also benefited from stronger sales of beverage canning equipment as industry capital spending recovered from lows seen in 2024 and 2025.

The analyst wrote that the company characterized the quarter as one in which "everything went right."

J.P. Morgan also said North American demand was supported by energy drinks, flavored alcoholic beverages, flavored teas and flavored sparkling waters, while beer volumes were flat to slightly higher.

Higher earnings estimates

Zekauskas increased his 2026 adjusted earnings per share estimate to $8.40 from $8.00 and lifted his 2027 forecast to $9.00 from $8.70. He also raised his 2026 estimate for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to $2.13 billion from $2.11 billion, reflecting stronger North American beverage volumes and profits.

The analyst expects beverage can volumes to grow 4% to 4.5% for the full year, including about a 0.5% benefit from the World Cup, with stronger growth coming from the Asia-Pacific region.

Expansion shifts overseas

J.P. Morgan estimates Crown's (CCK) annual capital spending will normalize around $550 million, including roughly $300 million for maintenance and about $250 million for growth projects.

The company is focusing its expansion efforts outside North America, adding new can-making capacity in Spain, Greece, Brazil and northern India while viewing the North American market as largely mature. Planned additions include about 1 billion cans of annual capacity in Spain, another 1 billion in Greece, 1.2 billion in Brazil and a 2.2 billion-can expansion in northern India scheduled for 2027 and 2028.

J.P. Morgan said Crown (CCK) expects at least $900 million in free cash flow during 2026. The company has repurchased about $500 million of stock during the first half of the year and plans another $200 million in buybacks during the second half, while management is not pursuing significant acquisitions.

Valuation limits upside

Despite the improved earnings outlook, J.P. Morgan said Crown's (CCK) valuation has become less compelling.

The analyst noted that the shares trade at roughly 9 times estimated 2026 ebitda and about 8.3 times 2027 ebitda, modestly above the company's historical trading multiples. He also estimated Crown's (CCK) free cash flow yield at 6% to 7%, compared with a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of about 4.6%, making the stock less attractive on a relative basis.