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The Athletic's Vic Tafur broke down win total projections for NFL teams recently, and he is not bullish on the Bengals. He has the franchise going under its 10.5 win total across major sportsbooks.
Cincinnati holds a 10.5 line at every major sportsbook except for DraftKings, which has them at a heavily juiced -150 to go over 9.5 wins.
"We interrupt all the buzzing about the bounce-back Bengals to ask a quick question: When was the last time they won more than nine games? 2022," Tafur noted. "Joe Burrow is indeed back, and he’s great, yada, yada, yada, and the defense can’t be as bad as it was last year. Well … maybe the secondary can … and the linebackers. It’s still all on Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and they’ve been good for nine wins per season of late."
Long-term history says Tafur has a good chance to be right, but short-term views would argue much differently.
Our Jay Morrison broke down the win total in June and pulled all their O/U season-long results from Pro Football Reference. He found Cincinnati has hit its win total over just 14 times in the last 37 years.
That's a tough number to look past, but Cincinnati has arguably the most talented team it's ever put together around Burrow, and they are facing that juicy third-place schedule. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Cincinnati's schedule as the easiest in the NFL, and that should be more than enough to put them in range of 11 wins if all the key pieces stay healthy.
Since a three-game losing streak near the end of the 2024 season, Burrow is 10-3 in his past 13 outings with the Bengals.
Here are the Bengals’ lines (and their actual win total):
2025: 10.5 (6)
2024: 10.5 (9)
2023: 11.5 (9)
2022: 9.5 (12)
2021: 6.5 (10)
2020: 5.5 (4)
2019: 6 (2)
2018: 7 (6)
2017: 8.5 (7)
2016: 9.5 (6)
2015: 8.5 (12)
2014: 9 (10)
2013: 8.5 (11)
2012: 8 (10)
2011: 5.5 (9)
2010: 8 (4)
2009: 7 (10)
2008: 7 (4)
2007: 9 (7)
2006: 9 (8)
2005: 8 (11)
2004: 7.5 (8)
2003: 5.5 (8)
2002: 7 (2)
2001: 5 (6)
2000: 5.5 (4)
1999: 5.5 (4)
1998: 7 (3)
1997: 8.5 (7)
1996: 7.5 (8)
1995: 5.5 (7)
1994: 5 (3)
1993: 4.5 (3)
1992: 6.5 (5)
1991: 9 (3)
1990: 9.5 (9)
1989: 10 (8)
Check out more on the Bengals' win total history here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/nfl/bengals/onsi as Cincinnati Bengals Projected to Miss Key 2026 Season-Long Betting Figure.
