Bay Area city braces for biggest housing boom in decades

In June 1964, on the opening day of Northgate Mall in San Rafael, shoppers charged into the Emporium, its flagship store, before the ceremonial ribbon could even be cut, the Daily Independent Journal reported at the time. A reporter for the publication overheard one woman, a redhead in a green print dress, sum up the anticipation of the crowd during opening remarks best: "I wish they'd get this over with." 

Once doors did open, hundreds explored the 200,000-square-foot store, known as the "Big E." The store featured glass-sided escalators, a beauty counter and wind-up cars in the toy department. Shoppers also enjoyed free rides on a motorized San Francisco cable car. The then-open-air mall included raised planters, reflecting pools and a sculptural fountain. 

By March 1965, the North Bay mall was bustling with even more businesses, like the men's clothing store Roos-Atkins and perennial mall fixture See's Candies. Undeveloped land surrounded the shopping center, a post from the Marin History Museum noted. 

But the retail environment has changed a lot in the past half-century.

In May of this year, cranes began demolishing the mall to make way for a new mixed-use development. Crews started with the two-story, postmodern-style building that housed the now-defunct Sears. Dubbed Northgate Town Square, the project includes 1,422 homes, some retail space, outdoor plazas and green spaces. It will also include the newest location of Marin's homespun, cult-favorite grocery store, Good Earth Natural Foods.

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The project is part of an influx of development proposals, poised to bring thousands of new housing units to San Rafael, said the city's community and economic development director, Micah Hinkle. Since 2024, housing projects in the city of about 59,000 have surged to an average of 1,403 units approved for development annually compared with the average of 188 housing units a year between 2018 and 2023, according to a March report. 

"It's one thing to entitle development; it's another to build," Hinkle said in a phone call with SFGATE, where he also praised "developers who actually make that investment to pull construction permits and [start] construction." 

Why it's happening now

In 2021, the city updated its downtown plan to make it easier to build. Officials didn't account for the heights that buildings would reach, though, and in June, the City Council began looking at studying density limits to address concerns about growing heights, the Marin Independent Journal reported. State density bonus laws have allowed developers to go higher. 

One project, not yet approved by the City Council, would replace a downtown Safeway with an eight-story, 331-unit housing complex. Another, at 555 Northgate Drive, across from the mall, includes a seven‑story residential building, with five levels of housing atop two levels of parking. Of the 193 one‑ and two‑bedroom units, 80% would be offered as low-income rental units. To qualify for low-income housing in Marin County, lessees must earn less than 80% of the area median annual income, or no more than $168,100 for a family of four. 

In recent years, the state government has gotten tougher on cities to plan for more housing in light of a housing affordability crisis. Renting a one-bedroom apartment in San Rafael costs $2,553 per month on average, according to RentCafe. This rent price is unrealistic for many in the area. For example, about 54.5% of the residents in the city's Canal District are living below 200% of the federal income and poverty level, according to a 2025 report. Nevertheless, the state's Regional Housing Needs Allocation requires the city to plan for building 3,220 new residences by 2031.

"We really, really, really, really need housing in Marin," said Jenny Silva, executive director of Call Marin Home, a nonprofit that advocates for affordable, environmentally sustainable housing, in a call with SFGATE. "There is a desperate need for housing at most income levels, and so this housing that is being proposed is fulfilling a very strong need that we have."

‘One size fits all' approach

Others are concerned that city officials are not accounting for the current "look and feel" of suburban neighborhoods with new development projects, placing single-story houses next to three-, five- and seven-story apartment blocks. The group Responsible Growth in Marin takes issue in particular with an approved 13-story luxury apartment complex in downtown near the historic Falkirk Mansion. It would replace a one-story commercial building.

"City officials are … challenged by state ordinances that impose a ‘one size fits all' approach," said Responsible Growth Marin leaders David Smith and Susan Coleman in an email to SFGATE. "City officials seem to have accepted the state mandated RHNA goals without examining the logic of those numbers. … This acceptance of Sacramento's power has gone as far as the city dismantling the highly valued Design Review Board."  

They are also "appalled" that the city did "no outreach whatsoever" to the mainly single-family-home Terra Linda neighborhood before approving a project to build an interim shelter site for unhoused people there. The city did host virtual and in-person community engagement sessions on the project. 

"Many of the proposed high-rise apartment blocks are of ‘cookie-cutter' (and possibly pre-fab) design, again totally without consideration of the surrounding neighborhood," Smith and Coleman wrote. "They will simply be cheap to build."

There have also been concerns about losing a major grocery store, Safeway, on the west side of the city, according to Amy Likover, president of the Federation of San Rafael Neighborhoods. Another developer, in contrast, is developing housing on top of Safeways in other Bay Area cities and retaining the grocery stores at those locations.

"What's taking people by surprise is how quickly the developments are coming forward," Likover said in a phone call with SFGATE. 

Merlone Geier Partners, the developers of Northgate Town Square, said that they are being "very thoughtful" about the bulk and scale of their project. Merlone Geier has replaced other Sears stores with new developments, including the Village at San Antonio Center in Mountain View.

"Change is always hard," said the company's managing director, Jamas Gwilliam, in a phone call with SFGATE. "People grow accustomed to certain traffic patterns or places to shop, and as the viability of certain businesses change, land uses have to change."

Gwilliam cited elevated construction costs and interest rates as two of the biggest challenges for the project.

The first phase of construction will be on the townhouses, but Gwilliam doesn't know when construction could begin on the first buildings. According to the project website, demolition is expected to take approximately 120 days to complete.

‘Very, very uneven' development

Although San Rafael is seeing massive housing growth, it's not the case in every Marin County city. Just 10 miles south, residents in the tony enclave of Belvedere have been more resistant to new construction. 

Earlier this month, Belvedere residents spoke against a development of 40 housing units along the shoreline. Questions remained about how developers would finance the project and, if not, how long the site would sit vacant. What would happen to the renters forced to leave their homes to make way for the new housing? What would it do to surrounding property values along Belvedere Lagoon, which amount to over $2 billion?

Other towns like Tiburon have leaned into accessory dwelling units to fulfill state housing goals. People were up in arms in early June when the Marin County Board of Supervisors approved a project to turn a former seminary in the tiny community of Strawberry into hundreds of homes, the Ark reported.

Silva is hopeful that more affordable housing will be built in Marin after 50 years of not building. Support for affordable housing in the county is "very, very uneven," she noted.

"We [Marin] are very, very well known for our … failure to build," she said. "There is really widespread recognition that we need to do something different. … In Belvedere, we're still hearing the things that we heard 20, 30 years ago, but even in Belvedere, I know people that are working to have more affordable housing built."

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