Anthropic, OpenAI are making other AI bets feel like second prize

Artificial intelligence has created a new venture capital race, but the biggest winners may be pulling away so quickly that even successful startups risk looking like consolation prizes.

According to a report from Commonfund, AI is steepening venture capital’s traditional "power law," where a small number of companies generate the majority of returns. As companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI push toward unprecedented valuations and commercial scale, investors who missed out on the category-defining winners may find that even strong AI bets struggle to compete.

Commonfund’s analysis points to a growing concentration of venture returns. Since 2023, the top 1% of venture-backed exits have generated roughly 80% of total exit value. Even excluding SpaceX, one of the largest contributors to recent venture outcomes, the top performers still accounted for about 45% of exit value.

How Concentration Is Reshaping Venture Capital

The firm argues that potential IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic could intensify that concentration even further, creating a market where a handful of AI companies capture a disproportionate share of investor returns.

For venture capital firms, the challenge is becoming less about finding companies with promising technology and more about identifying which companies can become the foundational platforms of the AI economy.

Anthropic and OpenAI represent the type of outcomes venture investors spend years chasing: companies that move beyond building individual products and instead become critical infrastructure for an entire technological shift. Their rapid growth, massive funding rounds and expanding enterprise adoption have positioned them as potential generational winners.

That creates a difficult benchmark for other AI startups. A company does not necessarily have to fail to become a disappointing investment outcome. It may simply be competing against companies whose scale, capital access and market influence are operating on a different level.

A startup developing an advanced AI application, enterprise automation tool or specialized model may still build a valuable business. But if OpenAI or Anthropic become the dominant platforms powering the next generation of software, those companies could capture much of the economic upside while smaller players fight for narrower opportunities.

The dynamic reflects a broader shift in venture investing. In previous technology cycles, investors could find attractive returns across multiple categories as new markets developed. In AI, Commonfund suggests the market may be consolidating around a smaller group of companies with the resources, talent and infrastructure needed to compete at the highest level.

The concentration could create a feedback loop favoring the largest players. Companies that attract the most capital can invest more heavily in computing capacity, research talent and product development, allowing them to widen their lead and attract even more customers and investors.

Can Startups Survive Against Tech Giants?

For venture firms, gaining access to these potential winners has become one of the industry’s biggest priorities. Competition for allocations in top AI companies has intensified, with investors increasingly willing to accept high valuations for exposure to businesses they believe could define the future of technology.

The upcoming public market debuts of leading AI companies could offer a clearer test of whether the sector will follow the traditional venture power law, or whether AI will create an even more extreme version of it.

If Anthropic and OpenAI continue their trajectories, the biggest risk for investors may not be backing the wrong AI company. It may be backing a company that is simply too small to compete with the handful of AI giants capturing the market’s attention, capital and returns.

Photo Courtesy: Primakov on Shutterstock

© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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This article Anthropic, OpenAI Are Making Other AI Bets Feel Like Second Prize originally appeared on Benzinga.com.