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Dave Hunter has earned the right to be taken seriously on Bitcoin. The contrarian analyst correctly predicted Bitcoin's slide from $100,000 down to $75,000 when most of the market was still expecting new highs.
His latest call, shared in an interview, is that the asset could fall further still, potentially down to $50,000 from current levels.
Bitcoin is trading near $65,000 today. A drop to $50,000 from here would represent a further decline of roughly 23 percent, taking the total drawdown from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to approximately 60 percent.
What is driving the bearish view
Hunter is not making a fundamentals argument against Bitcoin. He has been explicit that his bearishness is driven by momentum and sentiment, two forces that can push an asset well below fair value before the turn comes. In his framework, the current market structure still favours sellers, and until that changes, the path of least resistance remains downward.
Related: Bitcoin has crashed more than 50% six times and one thing keeps happening
That is a meaningfully different kind of bear case than the kind that questions Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.
Hunter has said publicly that he wants to see how Bitcoin holds up through what he describes as an incoming global bust before he makes any final judgment on the asset.
The test he has always wanted to run
The $50,000 call is not a verdict, it is a waypoint in that longer experiment. His position is that Bitcoin has never been stress-tested against a true global bust, only against localised crises and crypto-specific implosions like FTX.
A real macroeconomic contraction, the kind he sees coming, would be the first genuine test of whether Bitcoin functions as digital gold or simply as a high-beta risk asset that falls harder than everything else.
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Hunter's broader macro call adds context. He sees equities running another 30 percent from here, Dow to 70,000, S&P to 10,000, before what he describes as a global bust arrives.
In that scenario, Bitcoin's short-term correlation with risk assets keeps it under pressure while stocks are still running. The last time Hunter was this specific about a Bitcoin target, he was right.
Related: If Musk had bought Bitcoin and gold instead of Twitter, here's what it would be worth today
