An index of Florida’s competitive US House races in 2026

Florida’s Republican redistricting of 2026 has completely reshuffled the state’s congressional battleground. Just as it was designed to.

The last time we prepared a congressional vulnerability ranking for Florida’s delegation — May 23, 2025 — might as well have been in the Stone Age. Now, in advance of the Aug. 18 primary, we’ve updated our list of the most likely U.S. House seats in Florida to produce a flip in partisan control this November.

This is the ninth election cycle in which we’ve ranked the vulnerability of Florida’s U.S. House seats. In our current iteration, the four most vulnerable seats are held by Democrats. The remaining eight seats — each of which is at a lesser risk of flipping control — are held by Republicans.

The current partisan breakdown in Florida’s congressional delegation is 20 Republicans and eight Democrats. But after this year’s redistricting and November’s elections, the GOP edge could grow as wide as 24-4.

Our vulnerability rankings include four categories. For now, one race resides in our highest category, “Highly Vulnerable.” Four races sit in the next-highest category, “Vulnerable.” Another two are in the “Potentially Vulnerable” category. And five more are in the “Minimally Vulnerable” category. Within each category, the races are listed in descending order of vulnerability.

District descriptions and presidential voting results under the new lines are taken from the Almanac of American Politics Substack.

Highly vulnerable

9th District: Darren Soto (D)

Elected: 2016

Geography: Portions of Osceola, Orange, Polk, Indian River, Highlands, Okeechobee and Glades counties

2024 presidential result: Trump, 58%-41%

Black: 11%

Latino: 36%

Asian: 4%

The 2026 redistricting changed the 9th District dramatically, shifting it from a 51%-48% Kamala Harris district to a 58%-41% Donald Trump district. The changes reduced the district’s Hispanic population (which is heavily Puerto Rican) from 50% to 36% and left Soto — the only Latino Democrat in the Florida delegation — with a far weaker chance of reelection. Among the Republicans vying for the seat are deep-pocketed businessman Thomas Chalifoux, who’s run for it before, and agricultural official Ben Butler, who has the backing of U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack and Greg Steube. Five other Republicans are running as well. Soto is running again, but the changes leave his seat a clear first on our vulnerability list.

Vulnerable

22nd District: Open (Lois Frankel, D, is running in the 23rd District)

Geography: Portions of Broward, Palm Beach and Collier counties, plus Hendry County

2024 presidential result: Trump, 55%-41%

Black: 14%

Latino: 31%

Asian: 5%

The 22nd District saw such major changes from redistricting that Frankel decided to run in another district. Today, almost half of the population of the new 22nd is in Broward County, with another quarter in Palm Beach County. The district also stretches across the state to Collier County, taking in the Republican exurbs of Naples. Trump would have won under the new lines, 55%-41%, whereas Harris won the previous iteration, 52%-47%. On the Republican side, Michael Carbonara, a deep-pocketed biotech entrepreneur, is the biggest name in the primary, with four other GOP hopefuls also running. In a strong Democratic year, the 22nd might be on the fringes of competitiveness; in 2020, Joe Biden would have won the redrawn district, 51%-48%. Two Democrats are running in the primary, Pia Dandiya, a former executive with Apple, and attorney Kaysia Earley. Dandiya has put together some impressive fundraising totals, leading Democrats to think she has a shot at the seat.

14th District: Kathy Castor (D)

Elected: 2006

Geography: Hillsborough County

2024 presidential result: Trump, 55%-44%

Black: 13%

Latino: 26%

Asian: 5%

Some of Castor’s Democratic district was split into neighboring, Republican-held districts, changing its 2024 presidential vote from a 53%-45% Harris win to a 55%-44% Trump win. This made it the second-largest shift from redistricting, behind Soto’s seat. Despite this, Castor is running again and is getting support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “frontline” program, which aids vulnerable House Democratic incumbents. The Republican field includes former state Rep. Mike Beltran, state Rep. Kevin Steele and Bea Valenti, a former adviser to U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody. Castor has often overperformed the Democratic baseline and has strong name identification, but having run in safe seats previously, she will need to prove her mettle in a much more uphill campaign. A recent poll had Castor leading Beltran and Steele by eight and seven points, respectively.

25th District: Open (Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D, is running in the 20th District)

Geography: Portions of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties

2024 presidential result: Trump, 54%-45%

Black: 7%

Latino: 28%

Asian: 3%

This district, where Democratic incumbent Jared Moskowitz has chosen to run after the remap, has a good chance of being Florida’s most closely contested district in November. It is largely a coastal district stretching from southern Palm Beach County to Miami Beach. Under the new lines, the district shifted from a 50%-48% victory for Harris to a 54%-45% win for Trump, though in 2020, Trump would have lost the redrawn district 52%-47%. Moskowitz has a shot, though, given his political skills, some maverick stances and his pre-congressional tenure as state emergency management chief under Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He will first need to defeat a challenger from his left — democratic socialist Oliver Larkin, who successfully lobbied to block the Florida AFL-CIO from issuing a statewide endorsement of Moskowitz. (Moskowitz has received other labor endorsements, and the district’s large Jewish population makes this a harder lift for a democratic socialist than some other districts where such candidates critical of Israel have won Democratic primaries.) Five Republicans are vying for the nomination in what has become a somewhat contentious primary; they include Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer and former state Rep. George Moraitis.

7th District: Cory Mills (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Seminole County and portions of Volusia County

2024 presidential result: Trump, 52%-47%

Black: 11%

Latino: 19%

Asian: 5%

Mills is not vulnerable because of redistricting; it’s because of a series of personal controversies. In February, Mills was investigated by Washington, D.C., police for allegedly assaulting a 27-year-old woman. The congressman “vehemently” denied it in a statement from his office, and the woman later denied any physical altercation; no charges were filed. In March, the House Ethics Committee opened a formal investigation into Mills over alleged omissions and misrepresentations in financial disclosure reports and for allegedly improperly maintaining contracts for his business with the federal government. An Army combat veteran, Mills has also grappled with questions about the events that led to the awarding of a Bronze Star. Three Republicans are challenging Mills in the primary, including former news anchor Ryan Elijah, who won the Seminole County Hob Nob Straw Poll, 44%-34%, in July, after Mills had won it with 79% two years earlier. Mills has chalked up weak fundraising totals and has debts to pay off. Democrats, meanwhile, have a credible front-runner for the nomination: Bale Dalton, a former top NASA official and retired Navy officer. If Mills is the nominee, Democrats could have a shot of winning the relatively narrowly divided district, which was not changed by the 2026 redistricting. In fact, one internal Democratic poll showed Dalton edging Mills, 41%-39%, which is within the margin of error. But it remains to be seen how much the national Democratic Party will be able to go on offense when they are playing defense in so many seats elsewhere in the state.

Potentially vulnerable

27th District: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

Elected: 2020

Geography: Miami-Dade County

2024 presidential result: Trump, 57%-42%

Black: 7%

Latino: 74%

Asian: 3%

Salazar benefited from a sharp Republican shift among South Florida Hispanics in recent elections, but she could experience reduced margins in 2026. She also faces a big-name Democratic candidate, former CBS Miami anchor Eliott Rodriguez, though he’s had a relatively low profile in recent months. (Salazar herself was a local TV journalist before entering politics.) Also running as a Democrat is Robin Peguero, a former attorney with the congressional Jan. 6 investigative committee. The 27th is one of Miami-Dade’s three Hispanic-majority districts, and it was largely unchanged by the 2026 redistricting. Democrats are hoping for a large swing among Latino voters who have become disenchanted with Trump, especially non-Cubans.

13th District: Anna Paulina Luna (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Parts of Pinellas and Pasco counties

2024 presidential result: Trump, 56%-43%

Black: 6%

Latino: 10%

Asian: 4%

The 2026 redistricting slightly increased Trump’s margin of victory in Luna’s district, from 55%-43% to 56%-43%; that was the closest margin of any Republican-held seat in Florida that experienced redistricting changes. Democrats have a credible challenger in retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, though she must get past two other Democrats in the primary first.

Minimally vulnerable

16th District: Open (Vern Buchanan, R, is retiring)

Geography: Manatee County, portions of Pinelllas and Sarasota counties, plus Hardee and DeSoto counties

2024 presidential result: 56%-43%

Black: 12%

Latino: 13%

Asian: 3%

Even though the electoral impact was modest, thisdistrict changed substantially in geography. With the seat now open, the GOP primary front-runner is Sydney Gruters, a former congressional staffer and New College of Florida official. Trump has endorsed her, and her marriage to Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters all but ensures a healthy flow of fundraising. Former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner and former TV news anchor Glenn Pearson are the most prominent Democratic candidates. The Democratic field also includes a pair of veterans: Jon Harris and Tamika Lyles.

12th District: Gus Bilirakis (R)

Elected: 2006

Geography: Portions of Hillsborough and Pasco counties

2024 presidential result: Trump, 57%-42%

Black: 11%

Latino: 25%

Asian: 5%

Bilirakis has been reelected easily during his long career, but redistricting narrowed Trump’s win in the district from 67%-32% to 57%-42%. While this remains a comfortable cushion, he may have to sweat more than he has in the past. Two Democrats are running: former Hillsborough County Commissioner Kimberly Overman and physician and veteran Darren McAuley.

4th District: Aaron Bean (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Duval, Nassau and Clay counties

2024 presidential result: Trump, 55%-43%

Black: 32%

Latino: 8%

Asian: 4%

The 12-point Trump cushion in Bean’s Jacksonville-area district makes him a clear favorite, but not an invincible one. Democrats are hoping former Jacksonville Ethics Commission Chair Michael Kirwan can run a competitive race.

15th District: Laurel Lee (R)

Elected: 2022

Geography: Portions of Hillsborough, Pasco, Hernando and Citrus counties

2024 presidential result: Trump, 55%-44%

Black: 15%

Latino: 15%

Asian: 5%

The 2026 redistricting changes in this district increased Trump’s victory margin from 55%-44% to 59%-39%, aiding Lee’s bid for reelection. In the Democratic primary, retired CIA officer and Army veteran Chris Irizarry is facing off with Robert People, a fellow Army veteran.

21st District: Brian Mast (R)

Elected: 2016

Geography: St. Lucie and Martin counties and portions of Palm Beach County

2024 presidential result: Trump, 58%-41%

Black: 13%

Latino: 15%

Asian: 3%

Mast’s district should be red enough to protect him from a blue wave, but Coast Guard Reserve Lt. Cmdr. James Martin is making a credible run as a Democrat. The 2026 redistricting made only minor adjustments to the district lines and didn’t change Trump’s margin of victory.

Safe open-seat primaries

These contests don’t qualify for our vulnerability list because they are safe for one party or the other, meaning they are not at risk of a partisan flip in November. However, they will see extensive action in the Aug. 18 primaries.

Democratic-held seats

20th District (Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned)

24th District (Rep. Frederica Wilson is retiring)

Republican-held seats

2nd District (Rep. Neal Dunn is retiring)

11th District (Rep. Dan Webster is retiring)

19th District (Rep. Byron Donalds is running for governor)

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Tampa Bay Times Election Coverage

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State races: Here’s who wants to represent Tampa Bay in Legislature, Cabinet primaries

Congressional candidates: Who’s running for the US House in Tampa Bay after redistricting?

Governor’s race: Field set for Florida 2026 governor race