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American Airlines AAL reports second-quarter earnings before the open Thursday, with the call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company an 89% chance of beating estimates, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Robert Isom and his team will say.
What Kalshi Predicts Isom Will Say
“Chicago” or “O’Hare” leads at 87%. American regained three O’Hare gates in the city’s latest reallocation, effective October, after United’s push to expand at American’s expense fell short, and it has unveiled new Chicago-Tokyo flights as part of the rebuilt hub. The fight comes months after United Airlines UAL CEO Scott Kirby approached American about a merger and was publicly rejected.
“Record” sits at 74%. Analysts expect record revenue of $16.7 billion, up 16%, but consensus EPS of around a nickel implies a profit margin close to zero.
“AT&T” trades at 65%. American’s free Wi-Fi is paid for by AT&T T but runs on Viasat and Intelsat satellites, which are slower than the Starlink service at United and Alaska, and American has reportedly decided to add Starlink to around 500 jets from 2027.
“Centennial” also sits at 65%. American turned 100 on April 15, and the anniversary loops back to the gate war: the company’s first flight in 1926 was a mail run out of Chicago, the same city it just spent two years fighting United to keep.
“World Cup” trades at 55%. American’s largest hub is Dallas-Fort Worth, which hosted more matches than any other venue.
What Kalshi Predicts Isom Will Skip
“Iran / Middle East” sits at just 26%. Brent crude topped $94 this morning after an 11th consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iran, and fuel costs are the main reason American’s profit estimates collapsed 95% from a year ago. But earnings calls have a dialect for this, and traders expect executives to stick to it: “geopolitical environment” and “fuel headwinds,” never the name of the war driving both.
“Basic Economy” is a coin flip at 51%. American stripped miles from basic fares in December and cut elite seat selection while raising bag fees in May, a squeeze designed to push travelers into pricier cabins. This call offers the first full quarter of evidence on whether it worked.
Reading The Board
Taken together, the board describes a birthday party: a Chicago victory, a centennial, free Wi-Fi and record revenue, with the war behind its surging fuel bill politely left out.
The beat itself is priced in. What moves the stock is the second half: United raised its full-year outlook last week after recovering half its fuel-cost surge, and American either matches that confidence at $94 crude or explains why it can’t.
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This article American Airlines Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Robert Isom Say? originally appeared on Benzinga.com.
