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President Donald Trump’s final two years may hinge on the Senate, and prediction market traders now say Republicans have just a 56% chance of keeping it.
That number sits front and center on Kalshi’s new Midterms Hub, an election dashboard the platform launched Wednesday combining live odds, polling averages, fundraising data and historical results for every Senate, House and gubernatorial race.
Why the Senate Slide Matters
Republicans started the year with a 67% chance of holding the chamber, according to Kalshi’s market data, and were priced above 80% a year ago. The decline reportedly accelerated after the U.S.-Iran conflict earlier this year.
The House looks bleaker still for the GOP. Traders give Democrats roughly an 83% chance of flipping the chamber, an outcome that would leave Trump facing a hostile Congress for the back half of his term.
Traders across Kalshi and rival Polymarket have already put nearly $200 million behind midterm outcomes, according to NBC News.
Betting Money Over Polling
Kalshi is pitching the hub as an antidote to partisan noise, building on its KPOW index, which the company has described as an “S&P 500 for U.S. politics.”
“Prediction markets don’t care about spin or partisanship,” CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement. “They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric.”
The company said roughly 75% of visitors check odds without ever placing a trade.
A $40 Billion Question
Annualized revenue reportedly passed $2 billion in June, up from roughly $650 million last November, and the company is reportedly exploring a raise at a valuation as high as $40 billion, nearly double the $22 billion set by May’s Coatue-led Series F.
Mansour has reportedly ruled out an IPO this year.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Image: Shutterstock
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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This article Kalshi Launches Midterms Hub as GOP Senate Odds Slide from 67% to 56% originally appeared on Benzinga.com.
