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A race for Sam Maguire that promised so much from an Ulster perspective just a few short weeks ago comes to a conclusion on Sunday afternoon when the famous old trophy will either be staying in Kerry or returning to Mayo for the first time in 75 years.
The challenge from the northern province spluttered when fancied Donegal and Armagh outfits bowed out in round 3 last month, and was totally snuffed out when Tyrone and Monaghan then exited at the quarter-final stage on the last weekend of June.
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Gavin Devlin’s presence on the sideline for Louth did maintain an Ulster angle into the last four, but the Wee county succumbed to a resurgent Mayo who looked highly unlikely to be finalists for much of the championship.
Andy Moran’s men were being classed amongst the also-rans when they were hammered by Roscommon in a Connacht semi-final, and when they lost again to Tyrone in round 2A of the All-Ireland, the writing was on the wall.
Moran has inspired an upturn in fortunes, however, with his youthful team making the most of what most would see as a decent draw to come through to this stage, with performances improving by the round and momentum firmly with them after hammering Louth in the semis.
Unfortunately for them, Kerry provide the final obstacle and it will be a formidable one as the counties meet at this stage for the first time since 2006.
Jack O’Connor masterminded Mayo’s downfall 20 years ago – as he had done two seasons before – and he will seek a remarkable seventh All-Ireland success at Croke Park on Sunday.
O’Connor’s men go in as very hot favourites to retain the crown won so impressively against Donegal 12 months ago, with 4/9 the best price on offer about them winning in 70 minutes.
David and Paudie Clifford called the shots in last year’s decider, and Mayo simply have to get to grips with the Fossa siblings if they are to have any chance of lifting the curse that stretches back to 1951.
Moran’s men can be backed at 14/5 (AK Bets) but surely only the most ardent of Mayo men – or Kerry haters – will be taking a piece of that, even though they do have serious scoring threats of their own in Ryan O’Donoghue, Darragh Beirne and the AFL-bound Kobe McDonald, who have all the talent to trouble the Kerry rearguard.
Much like Mayo, Kerry’s season has revolved around a defeat, to Donegal in a bad-tempered clash in round 1 of the All-Ireland series, which was only their second championship loss in Killarney in 28 years.
That served as a jolt to the Kingdom, while O’Connor has always been the master of timing a run at the right time of the season, and David Clifford has gone up several notches since then.
That game was the only one of seven in which he hasn’t found the net, and the Kerry talisman is just 4/6 to raise a green flag on Sunday.
Donegal found out to their cost last year that it is impossible to blot his influence out, even though he was happy to drift out wide at times to let others revel in the spaces he left behind.
Paudie, Sean O’Shea (if fit) and Dylan Geaney are enough to give defences nightmares on their own, and it is virtually impossible to see how Mayo outscore them.
Another issue is that Kerry have tightened up defensively too, having not conceded a goal in the four games since that Donegal reverse, and while Mayo did get three majors in the win over Louth, they didn’t hit the net in the wins over Meath and Cork prior to that.
It all adds up to a relatively comfortable Kerry win in my eyes, with the conundrum being how to find a bit of value from a betting point of view.
To that end, backing Kerry to win both halves at 13/10 (Boyle Sports) looks a good idea as they have won seven of the eight halves they have played since Donegal, the only exception being when they were level with Dublin at the interval in the semi-final.
Following another recent trend, the 21/10 offered by the same firm about Kerry winning without conceding a goal looks to have a bit of juice in it, while I’ll also take a punt on a Kingdom success by 4-6 points at 4/1 with Sky Bet, which came up in both the quarter-final and semi wins over Tyrone and Dublin respectively.
Finally, David Clifford dominates the man of the match market but he played a selfless role last term and it could be Dylan Geaney’s time to shine again, having picked up the honours in the win over Tyrone.
The Dingle man is a 10/1 shot and with confidence sky-high he could be the star as Kerry ensure Mayo’s wait for Sam goes on.
ALL-IRELAND SFC FINAL TIPS
Kerry to win both halves, 13/10 (Boyle Sports);
Kerry to win and not concede a goal, 21/10 (Boyle Sports);
Kerry to win by 4-6 points, 4/1 (Sky Bet);
Dylan Geaney, man of the match, 10/1 (Boyle Sports)
