SerpApi.Org
The outlook for VF Corp. is looking both better and brighter.
Williams Trading analyst Sam Poser is telling investors to "Buy VF Corp." He said the outlook for Vans continues to improve, while the outlook for Timberland's revenue growth trends, for the balance of Calendar '26, "remains positive after increasing eight percent, or up five percent in constant currency, in Fiscal Year '26. He did caution that Timberland's "sole" focus on its iconic six-inch boot, and its derivatives, "appears to be running its course."
He also noted that thus far, inventory levels for all of VF's brands are clean on the balance sheet and in the marketplace, which will "drive ongoing gross margin expansion."
Vans
The big plus for VF is that total revenue for the Vans brand "appears poised for a positive inflection beginning in the seond half of Fiscal Year 2027, he noted, adding that the brand's sell-through rates had improved in the first quarter and that he expects the "ongoing improvement throughout the back-to-school selling season."
And while improving trends may not be immediately evident from wholesale data sources, as inventory levels are "significantly down year-over-year," Vans direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue for the first quarter, led by the Americas, will continue to show momentum following its fourth quarter five percent increase in the Americas DTC revenue, Poser said.
"We expect that Vans' wholesale order book for 2H27 will turn positive due to the improving trends," Poser said.
Another plus for VF and Vans is that the updates to the heritage Old Skool and Authentic styles are gaining momentum in the brand's DTC channel.
"The updates to iconic styles are driving improvements more so than Knu Skool and the Super Lopro, which are really new styles paying homage to old ideas, rather than being updates to old styles," Poser said.
The Williams Trading analyst also noted that updates to iconic styles, such as the Old Skool Pearlized, the LX Old Skool 36, the Authentic Kickdown, the LX Authentic, and the Palace Skateboard x Vans Low 2.0 "all have had limited releases, sold very well, and, generally, are selling for a premium on third party websites."
While he is forecasting a six percent decline in Vans year-over-year sales in the first half (down 9.5 percent in the first quarter and down 3 percent in the second), Poser expects sales acceleration into the second half, especially in the fourth quarter. The analyst explained that that's when large wholesale accounts will be "fully able to respond to the improving trends."
Currently, Vans' poor sales over the past few years have most retailers planning the business down and hesitation in taking any chances. But with improved sell-through rates, even with sales down, the year's back-to-school selling season will drive increased future orders, he concluded.
"We expect that Vans fiscal year 2027 sales will be closer to flat year-over-year than to the guidance, which calls for revenue to be down mid-single-digits," Poser said.
The updates to iconic styles are driving improvements more so than Knu Skool and the Super Lopro, which are really new styles paying homage to old ideas, rather than being updates to old styles. Updates to iconic styles, such as the Old Skool Pearlized, the LX Old Skool 36, the Authentic Kickdown, the LX Authentic, and the Palace Skateboard x Vans Low 2.0 "all have had limited releases, sold very well, and, generally, are selling for a premium on third party websites," Poser noted.
Timberland
Poser said the expectation from management is that the momentum from last year is expected to continue. He thinks that the shoe brand "leaned too heavily" into its six-inch boot and turned almost every item into a lug sole boot-related item, or added the iconic yellow/wheat color to more casual items. "The results will be, in our view, that the urban consumer who has gravitated towards Timberland recently, will once again move on to other brands and items," he said.
But Poser also pointed out that the brand has over the past 25-years given "short shrift" to its more casual outdoor lifestyle products that helped bring the brand to prominence in the 1990s, such as the three-eye padded collar lug sole Mocassin that the brand now refers to as its boat shoe. "There is no reason that Sperry [a private firm] should be owning the boat shoe business, when Timberland once outperformed Sperry in the category," he concluded.
Poser noted that Timberland has an archive of country casual shoes to draw from, including legitimate boat shoes with siped bottoms (to provide better traction on a deck) that appeal to a "far broader audience" than the six-inch boot. Those styles have "performed well in the past," he said, adding that they will help prevent the "roller coaster from going down once again."
Reintroduction and updates of other heritage styles, including the Weather Buck, Bush Hiker, and the Goretex Chukka would help the shoe brand weather the fickle yellow/wheat boot business going forward. Abandoning the outdoor heritage styles left Timberland floundering when the core six-inch boot customers moved on, a pattern that the brand has repeated over the past 30 years.
"It's not too late to make the needed adjustments as the Timberland brand still holds weight," Poser advised.
