SpaceX says it's worth $1.75 trillion. The 'dean of valuation' says that's half a trillion too high

Barring any last-minute surprises, SpaceX will go public this Friday, setting a new Wall Street record for amount raised. The rocket/AI company is seeking to add at least $75 billion to its coffers and has set a valuation of $1.75 trillion.

Both of those numbers could wobble a bit in the days leading up to the IPO. Despite Elon Musk’s declaration that the IPO price would be $135 per share, the company can adjust that as late as Thursday afternoon, depending on investor interest and feedback from the company’s road show.

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As investors wait for the first trade, a growing number of financial experts are saying SpaceX is aiming too high with its IPO. And the latest is a professor who is best known as the “dean of valuation.”

Aswath Damodaran, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, says he believes SpaceX’s equity value is roughly $1.3 trillion (1), nearly a half trillion less than the company claims.

Speaking on The Wall Street Journal’s Take On the Week podcast (2), Damodaran raised issues with the “total addressable market” that SpaceX discussed in its S-1 filing. The company claims the AI division could see revenue opportunities of $26 trillion. Damodaran says that’s “reaching the end of what’s plausible and pushing beyond,” especially given the unit’s current heavy losses.

He’s hardly the only person pumping the brakes on the well-hyped IPO.

“Significantly overvalued”

Damodaran’s comments come just days after Morningstar warned potential investors that the valuation SpaceX was touting was at too high an orbit. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens says his fair value estimate of the company’s worth is roughly $780 billion, less than half of what the company is targeting.

“We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” he wrote.

Ed Elson, an analyst who also co-hosts the Prof G Markets podcast with entrepreneur Scott Galloway, has also taken a very skeptical look at the company’s S-1 filing.

“The stock is set to be priced at 107 times sales, which would make it one of the most expensive stocks in history,” he wrote. “It will be twice as valuable [as] Walmart while generating less revenue than Macy’s.”

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Will investors care?

While the number of red flags from analysts are growing, that may not have much of an impact on the IPO—and those analysts acknowledge that.

“It’s going to be one of the most heavily traded investments out there—people buying and selling based on mood and momentum,” said Damodaran, who also acknowledged the chance that “it’s going to stomp you, even if you’re right on value.”

Morningstar’s Owens suggested smart investors will wait for the initial wave of excitement to pass.

“We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” he wrote (3).

Elson? He’s much less bullish, calling SpaceX a “trainwreck” and saying the filing was “unserious, empty, hallucinatory, and borderline dishonest.”

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Article Sources

We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.

The Wall Street Journal (1), (2); Morningstar (3)

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.