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Fantasy football rankings vs. projections: Running backs (2026)

FantasyPros · Jul 22, 2026 11:05 · 7 min read

Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers (2026) — Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Projections: Running Backs (2026)

This is the same exercise we ran at quarterback, applied to running back. We sorted our season-long fantasy football projections by total projected FPTS to build a “projection rank,” then compared it to each back’s actual expert consensus ranking to find the widest gaps. At a position where touch share and role can shift on a single depth-chart note, these mismatches are worth knowing before you draft.

fantasy football rankings expert consensus

2026 RB Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Projections: Where They Disagree

Let’s explore where the fantasy football projections and rankings disagree for 2026.

Projections Are Higher on Them Than Their Rank Suggests

These backs are projected to score more fantasy points, relative to the field, than their current ECR reflects. If you believe the underlying workload projection, there’s value being left on the board here.

Derrick Henry (BAL) — ECR: RB11 | Projection Rank: RB6 | Projected FPTS: 264.0

Last year was another impressive year for Derrick Henry. He didn’t show any signs of slowing down with 307 rushing attempts, 1.595 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns, and an RB8 finish in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Henry ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in explosive run rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Henry won’t contribute much in the passing game, but that’s a given at this point. It doesn’t crush his overall production, but it isn’t there to help add to his weekly floor. Henry had five games last year as RB25 or lower in weekly fantasy scoring. I still want to invest in Henry as an RB1 again in 2026. If Lamar Jackson can bounce back, Henry could inch back closer to his 2024 production (RB4 in fantasy points per game). He’s at worst a low-end RB1 with top-five upside.

Josh Jacobs (GB) — ECR: RB15 | Projection Rank: RB11 | Projected FPTS: 239.0

Josh Jacobs has been the RB8 and RB9 in fantasy points per game during his two seasons in Green Bay. he dealt with a knee injury last season, which impacted his snap share and effectiveness. Last year, after Week 6, he surpassed 60% of the snaps in only two games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Green Bay limit his playing time to an extent this year to keep him healthy all year, but that’s just a projection. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see them run him out there for 70-80% of the snaps weekly if his body can hold up. Last year, he ranked 22nd in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Jacobs’ touchdown equity in the Green Bay offense has helped him a ton over the last two seasons, as he has averaged 15 total touchdowns per season while ranking ninth and fifth in red zone touches. Jacobs is a top 20 back with RB1 upside in 2026.

Breece Hall (NYJ) — ECR: RB16 | Projection Rank: RB13 | Projected FPTS: 229.8

Breece Hall had a tough time last year despite finishing as the RB20 in fantasy points per game. New York’s quarterback play was dreadful, and the offense overall was a mess, which led to them ranking 29th in points per game and red zone scoring opportunities per game. The good news is that despite those factors, he ran behind an offensive line that ranked seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). New York’s offensive line remains largely intact while adding Dylan Parham to the mix to replace the often-injured and departed Alijah Vera-Tucker, so they could easily be a top-shelf unit in 2026. The Jets also added Geno Smith, Omar Cooper Jr., and Kenyan Sadiq to the mix, which will raise the ceiling and floor of the overall offensive environment. This is all great news for a back that was also fourth in explosive run rate and tenth in missed tackle rate last year. Hall should enjoy more scoring opportunities this season and hopefully a bounce back in the receiving department while finishing with a career-low 10.9% target share last season. Hall should be considered a top-shelf RB2 with RB1 upside.

Their Rank Is Higher Than the Raw Projection Supports

These backs carry a better consensus rank than their projected point total alone would justify — a sign the market is pricing in something a season-long average can’t fully capture, whether that’s role uncertainty, a crowded backfield, or simple name value outrunning the current path to touches.

Kyle Monangai (CHI) — ECR: RB33 | Projection Rank: RB36 | Projected FPTS: 144.5

Kyle Monangai is a solid RB3/flex option with high-end handcuff appeal for 2026. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Monangai led D’Andre Swift with 19 red zone rushing attempts compared to Swift’s 18 while producing as the RB33 in fantasy points per game. During the same span, Monangai averaged 12.2 touches and 55.8 total yards while having a 28.8% route share (per Fantasy Points Data). Monangai is a serviceable early down hammer for Chicago, ranking 24th in explosive run rate, 21st in rushing success rate, and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. If Swift misses any time, Monangai would be Chicago’s lead back and an RB1/2.

Blake Corum (LAR) — ECR: RB35 | Projection Rank: RB39 | Projected FPTS: 132.6

Blake Corum is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy. He looked back to his pre-injury form (finally) last year. After all of the injuries he sustained at Michigan, I didn’t know if we’d ever see the early collegiate version of Corum again, but he was excellent last year on a per-touch basis. After Week 1, he was a viable touchdown or bust flex as the RB46 in fantasy points per game with four top 24 finishes in weekly scoring among backs. He doesn’t offer much in the passing game with only 14 targets and 4.5 yards per reception last year, but he’s a damn good rusher on early downs. Among 49 qualifying backs, Corum ranked sixth in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). He’s a fine high-end handcuff stash or later round flier that could be an emergency flex during the season.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) — ECR: RB42 | Projection Rank: RB47 | Projected FPTS: 104.2

Tyrone Tracy slots in as a strong handcuff this season. If Cam Skattebo is fully healthy, I expect him to lead New York’s backfield, but if he can’t stay healthy in 2026 (very possible), Tracy could be a plug-and-play RB2. Last year, Tracy had another nice run as the Giants’ starting back. In Weeks 10-18, he was the RB14 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.7 touches and 95.5 total yards. Overall, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 27th in explosive run rate and 31st in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Skattebo misses any games, you’ll be glad you drafted Tracy.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAC) — ECR: RB43 | Projection Rank: RB49 | Projected FPTS: 92.1

Chris Rodriguez reunited with Liam Coen this offseason as he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rodriguez and Coen spent time together during Coen’s one-year tenure as Kentucky’s offensive coordinator during the 2021 collegiate season. In that season, Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards with 6.1 yards per carry and 12 total touchdowns. Rodriguez will look to build upon his brief run as Washington’s starter last season. In Weeks 10-18, he drew six starts while averaging 12.7 touches and 57.7 total yards as the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Rodriguez could be an early down and short yardage option for the Jags this year, as he won’t be contributing much in the passing game. Last season, he had only four targets and 30 receiving yards with Washington. He was quite good as a rusher, though ranking 12th in missed tackle rate and second in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). We’ll see how much Rodriguez can eat into Bhayshul Tuten‘s workload this season, but he’s a nice late-round pick in all formats.

Tank Bigsby (PHI) — ECR: RB52 | Projection Rank: RB61 | Projected FPTS: 65.6

Tank Bigsby is one of the best handcuffs in the NFL, and he won’t get mentioned at the top of the conversation many times. Last year, among 65 qualifying backs, he ranked fourth in explosive run rate, second in missed tackle rate, and first in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). In the one game that he played more than 40% of the snaps (Week 18), we got to see what his fantasy value could be if Saquon Barkley missed any time. He logged 17 touches with 106 total yards as the RB9 for the week in PPR scoring. If you’re looking for handcuffs to stash, Bigsby is one of the best.

Keaton Mitchell (LAC) — ECR: RB51 | Projection Rank: RB62 | Projected FPTS: 65.0

Keaton Mitchell landed with the Chargers this offseason and should be solid competition for Kimani Vidal for the RB2 role. Mitchell flashed with the same big-play ability that he has been known for in his short career with the Ravens last season. Last season, he had only 68 touches, but he had a 10.2% explosive run rate and a respectable 1.37 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I don’t know if he’ll have a ton of bankable standalone value week-to-week with the Bolts, but he will offer some flashy big plays for Mike McDaniel’s offense when called upon in 2026. I wouldn’t be surprised if he works his way into an ancillary role as the season moves along that offers some flex value, but we’ll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition.

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